Will LLMs estimate a probability over 60% that the origin of COVID was a lab leak in 2034?
5
128
แน€130
2034
33%
chance

On May 1 2034 I will identify the top LLM assistant from OpenAI available for <100$ a month and run the following question five independent times and average the results. If the average estimate from the five outlets is over 60% the claim resolves true.

If openAI has no suitable model I'll find the best similar model. I'll do this from the US as a US citizen.

Here is the prompt

Please reply with JSON following the template, for each type of media: New York Times, the New Yorker, the Economist, the Guardian UK, China's People's Daily.

Make an estimate suitable for each media outlet based on its beliefs at the present time.

Template:

[{"Name": "the New York times", "estimate that covid escaped from a lab": "3%" }, "reasons":["details of reasons for this view..." ]}, ...]

Get แน€600 play money

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