Will LLMs estimate a probability over 60% that the origin of COVID was a lab leak in 2034?

On May 1 2034 I will identify the top LLM assistant from OpenAI available for <100$ a month and run the following question five independent times and average the results. If the average estimate from the five outlets is over 60% the claim resolves true.

If openAI has no suitable model I'll find the best similar model. I'll do this from the US as a US citizen.

Here is the prompt

Please reply with JSON following the template, for each type of media: New York Times, the New Yorker, the Economist, the Guardian UK, China's People's Daily.

Make an estimate suitable for each media outlet based on its beliefs at the present time.


[{"Name": "the New York times", "estimate that covid escaped from a lab": "3%" }, "reasons":["details of reasons for this view..." ]}, ...]

Get แน€600 play money

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