Where did COVID-19 come from

2.6kṀ14k

2035

0.4%

It does not exist / is not a new virus / 5G / aliens

0.7%

Non-zoonotic origins

43%

Transfer at a wet market

Transfer in the wild to a civilian

Transfer in the wild to a virus researcher

Accidental transfer in a lab with no modifications

46%

Accidental transfer in a lab after research gain-of-function modifications

1.1%

Planned deliberate release

0.2%

Deliberate release by a rogue employee

Other

Update 2025-21-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification on "In the wild":
- Refers to any location not listed in other options.

Update 2025-05-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator confirmed specific scenarios that would fall under a non-zoonotic origin (which users in the thread associated with a lab origin). These scenarios include if the pandemic virus:
- Was created from scratch.
- Originated from a virus that was previously sampled from humans (and subsequently became the source of the pandemic, e.g., through a lab-related pathway).

Update 2025-05-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator clarified how to select this market's resolution option when the outcome from the dependent market (@/IsaacKing/did-covid19-come-from-a-laboratory) could fit multiple options in this market:
- The more specific option available in this market will take precedence.
- For example, lab-specific zoonotic options are considered more specific and would be chosen over broader categories they might also belong to.

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