The question of political leanings in 2034 is terribly boring... much rather see the result based on a more impartial metric of probability

Will retest at any time I hear of a new version of an LLM available with a more recent training set.

Today's results

OpenAI:

GPT3.5: 20,5,10,2,0.1 => 7.42%

GPT4.0: 5,4,10, 6,1 => 5.2%

Anthropic:

Claude: 10, 20, 30, 5, 1 => 13.2%

Claude 2.0: 10, 20, 30, 40, 15, 1 => 23.1%

Microsoft:

Bing: 3, 0, 20, 10, 0 => 6.6%

Here's a market about whether when this resolves, there will be much tighter agreement and repeatability in the answer than today:

I tested it asking about whether the JFK assassination was a conspiracy and the average was still only 10%, 61 years later.

There's still quite a bit of variability. I just got 5% on gpt4

GPT-3.5 is a 22% with old data

GPT-4 with data from 2021 is at 23% and 18%