Will LLMs estimate a probability over 40% that the origin of COVID was a lab leak in 2034?

On May 1 2034 I will identify the top LLM assistant from OpenAI available for <100$ a month and run the following question five independent times and average the results. If the average estimate from the five outlets is over 40% the claim resolves true.

If openAI has no suitable model I'll find the best similar model. I'll do this from the US as a US citizen.

Here is the prompt

Please reply with JSON following the template, for each type of media: New York Times, the New Yorker, the Economist, the Guardian UK, China's People's Daily.

Make an estimate suitable for each media outlet based on its beliefs at the present time.


[{"Name": "the New York times", "estimate that covid escaped from a lab": "3%" }, "reasons":["details of reasons for this view..." ]}, ...]

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The question of political leanings in 2034 is terribly boring... much rather see the result based on a more impartial metric of probability

predicts YES

Will retest at any time I hear of a new version of an LLM available with a more recent training set.

predicts YES

Today's results


GPT3.5: 20,5,10,2,0.1 => 7.42%

GPT4.0: 5,4,10, 6,1 => 5.2%


Claude: 10, 20, 30, 5, 1 => 13.2%

Claude 2.0: 10, 20, 30, 40, 15, 1 => 23.1%


Bing: 3, 0, 20, 10, 0 => 6.6%

predicts YES

Here's a market about whether when this resolves, there will be much tighter agreement and repeatability in the answer than today:

predicts YES

I tested it asking about whether the JFK assassination was a conspiracy and the average was still only 10%, 61 years later.

predicts YES

There's still quite a bit of variability. I just got 5% on gpt4

GPT-3.5 is a 22% with old data

GPT-4 with data from 2021 is at 23% and 18%