Manifest 24

1.2k
Will the second Manifest be better than the first?YES
360
Who will be winners of Manifest 2024 on Manifold?
60%61%
@Ziddletwix
30%12%
@Elliot_dev
10%3%
@Nikos
2%
@Joshua
See 8 more answers
Best Manifest Out Of Context QuotePOLL
"I'm not a whale anymore, just a degen"
"What's Shibari? Is that some type of Jewish building?"
"I am the voice of God"
"Squirtle is unevolved so its like pedophilia"
See 18 more options
2.9k
Best Manifest Out Of Context Quote
100%98%
"I just checked the orgy room. Four fully clothed men talking about software."
0.0%
"I'm not a whale anymore, just a degen"
0.2%
"What's Shibari? Is that some type of Jewish building?"
0.0%
"I am the voice of God"
See 19 more answers
P Prize Market
120k
Manifest 2024 Prop Bets
Resolved
YES
Eliezer Yudkowksy will attend
Resolved
YES
Aella will attend
Resolved
YES
Someone will make at least 10,000 mana they wouldn't have made if they didn't attend
Resolved
YES
At least 1 episode of "Manifold: Live!"
See 184 more answers
1.1k
Manifest Multi-Person Mixer Bingo!
Resolved
NO
A 4-leveled human pyramid with more than 8 people [must be structurally independently supported]
Resolved
NO
A photo with @Aella and more men than were present at her gangbang (n=42)
Resolved
NO
A Bet on Love reunion ( @Aella with 3 or more of her BoL contestants)
Resolved
NO
12 people born in different months
See 11 more answers
1.2k
Manifest Hot Takes: Which out of context Manifest quotes will Manifold agree with?
Resolved
YES
"Mint Chocolate is the best Soylent Flavor"
Resolved
YES
"Memecoins are a sensemaking tool"
Resolved
NO
"Squirtle is unevolved so its like pedophilia"
1k
What will the low end of my p(doom) be after LessOnline + Manifest ?
Resolved
YES
Lower, by a bit; p(doom) minimum is now 9% or less
Resolved
NO
Higher, by a lot; p(doom) minimum is now 15% or more
Resolved
NO
Higher, by a bit; p(doom) minimum is now 11% or more
Resolved
NO
Lower, by a lot; p(doom) minimum is now 5% or less
Come to Manifest 2024 (June 7-9 in Berkeley)
Manifold is hosting a festival for prediction markets: Manifest 2024! We’ll have serious talks, attendee-run workshops, and fun side events over the weekend. Chat with special guests like Nate Silver, Scott Alexander, Robin Hanson, Dwarkesh Patel, Cate Hall, and more at this second in-person gathering of the forecasting & prediction market community!
3.1k
What will be the single most impressive item that I witness at Less Online & Manifest?
100%9%
A puzzle
5%
A robot
7%
A book
4%
A piece of jewelry
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3.6k
What will be the single most impressive action that I witness at Less Online & Manifest?
100%24%Other
2%
Someone dancing
2%
Someone calling someone famous and having them pick up
7%
Someone wrestling or engaging in some other form of combat
See 13 more answers
1k
Will someone who initially buys YES here win either the Most Impressive Action or Most Impressive Item Manifest markets?NO
1k
Will there be a ball pit at Manifest 2024?NO
11k
Which users will attend Manifest 2024?
Resolved
N/A
Evan Conrad
Resolved
N/A
Shannon - @shannon
Resolved
NO
axr - @axr
Resolved
NO
Beam - @beam
See 84 more answers
1k
How many people will attend Manifest 2024?
100%98.0%
501-600
0.0%
0-100
0.0%
101-200
0.1%
201-300
See 4 more answers
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