Manifest

Come to Manifest 2024 (June 7-9 in Berkeley)

Manifold is hosting a festival for prediction markets: Manifest 2024! We’ll have serious talks, attendee-run workshops, and fun side events over the weekend. Chat with special guests like Nate Silver, Scott Alexander, Robin Hanson, Dwarkesh Patel, Cate Hall, and more at this second in-person gathering of the forecasting & prediction market community!

Will Manifest 2024 happen in the SF Bay Area from June 7-9?97% chance

Manifest 2024 Prop Bets

68%

There will be a Ballpit

66%

There will be an orgy

82%

Eliezer Yudkowksy will attend

34%

A current or former OpenAI CEO will attend

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Manifest is a forecasting and prediction markets festival hosted by Manifold Markets. June 7-9, 2024. Berkeley, California.

Who will be a special guest/speaker at Manifest 2024?

92%

Nate Silver

91%

Aella

18%

Dylan Matthews

83%

Eliezer Yudkowsky

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Will there be a ball pit at Manifest 2024?81% chance

Which users will attend Manifest 2024?

87%

Tony Pepperoni @TonyPepperoni

66%

Fraser - @spider

91%

Haven Harms - @HWH

15%

Max Harms - @MaxHarms

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Will the second Manifest be better than the first?59% chance

How many people will attend Manifest 2024?

1.2%

0-100

2%

101-200

9%

201-300

25%

301-400

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Will I run Manifest 2024?87% chance

Manifest Bingo: What will I experience at Manifest 2024 if I go? [ADD RESPONSES]

96%

Meet two of the core team members

87%

I will laugh

80%

Listen to live music

67%

Eat a bagel

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Will there be a Manifest in the first half of 2024?97% chance

Who will be winners of Manifest 2024 on Manifold?

51%

Other

20%

5%

5%

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#Trending Events Tournament 2024

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