Manifest 24
100%98%
"I just checked the orgy room. Four fully clothed men talking about software."
0.0%
"I'm not a whale anymore, just a degen"
0.2%
"What's Shibari? Is that some type of Jewish building?"
0.0%
"I am the voice of God"
Prize MarketResolved
YESEliezer Yudkowksy will attend
Resolved
YESAella will attend
Resolved
YESSomeone will make at least 10,000 mana they wouldn't have made if they didn't attend
Resolved
YESAt least 1 episode of "Manifold: Live!"
Resolved
YES"Mint Chocolate is the best Soylent Flavor"
Resolved
YES"Memecoins are a sensemaking tool"
Resolved
NO"Squirtle is unevolved so its like pedophilia"
Manifest
Manifest is a forecasting and prediction markets festival hosted by Manifold Markets. June 7-9, 2024. Berkeley, California.
Resolved
YESLower, by a bit; p(doom) minimum is now 9% or less
Resolved
NOHigher, by a lot; p(doom) minimum is now 15% or more
Resolved
NOHigher, by a bit; p(doom) minimum is now 11% or more
Resolved
NOLower, by a lot; p(doom) minimum is now 5% or less
Come to Manifest 2024 (June 7-9 in Berkeley)
Manifold is hosting a festival for prediction markets: Manifest 2024! We’ll have serious talks, attendee-run workshops, and fun side events over the weekend. Chat with special guests like Nate Silver, Scott Alexander, Robin Hanson, Dwarkesh Patel, Cate Hall, and more at this second in-person gathering of the forecasting & prediction market community!
100%24%Other
2%
Someone dancing
2%
Someone calling someone famous and having them pick up
7%
Someone wrestling or engaging in some other form of combat
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