Manifest 2024 Prop Bets
106
1.3K
14K
Jun 10
34%
Someone publicly vomits
62%
Someone will do a backflip
31%
Somebody wears something that causes an argument over whether or not it counts as a fursuit
17%
An action that most people would prefer not happen will happen specifically because of market incentives from this option, or the previous option this one is based on (the one submitted by @Nikos ).
83%
Someone wears a partial fursuit publicly
44%
Will anyone be able to spin a top more than ten minutes? One real try per person
91%
Someone gets infected with Lumina probiotic (BCS3-L1) developed by Lantern Bioworks
45%
Someone rides a Unicycle and does some kind of trick
73%
Interaction between at least 4 silly geese (vibes-based, resolves at @Joshua's discretion)
44%
I'll be able to assemble a minyan for either speed-davening Friday night or Saturday morning
24%
It will rain
73%
User @Joshua will meet (at least one) wizard
35%
At least one attendee successfully convinces @Joshua that they were a cast member on The Wire (whether that is true or not)
1%
New once in a century pandemic starts during or immediately before conference
31%
Over 2 million trading volume on a single Manifest-related market by the end of Manifest
91%
5+ people with Wikipedia pages attend
66%
someone challenges @NathanpmYoung to a rap battle
59%
A market created during Manifest has 400+ traders by the end of Manifest
39%
Two people wearing apple vision pros talk to each other

Manifest 2024 will take place June 7th to June 9th in Berkely California. This market is for prop bets about the event! Note that all bets are about the conference itself and not the summer camp.

Add anything that you think would be

  • Fun to predict, might or might not happen

  • Reasonably simple to track whether it happened or not (nothing too hard to count)

  • Respects people's privacy (Let people make their own "will I get laid" markets, don't make one for them)

I intend to attend, and I'll resolve everything I can. But any staff or mods are welcome to resolve any options as well, as prop bet markets are hard for any one person to manage.

Market close will be extended as necessarily if the dates change.

For markets about who will attend, I've made this market:

/Joshua/which-users-will-attend-manifest-20

There's also this for just special guests:

/DanMan314/who-will-be-a-special-guestspeaker

Get Ṁ200 play money
Sort by:
Someone gets infected with Lumina probiotic (BCS3-L1) developed by Lantern Bioworks

Pre-orders went live, estimated delivery in June: https://www.luminaprobiotic.com/

bought Ṁ10 At least one attende... YES

12321

A billionaire attends

For how long do they have to be a billionaire?

Would this work?

Will anyone be able to spin a top more than ten minutes? One real try per person

It's a billetspin

OMG OMG OMG

There will be soup made according to @Stralor's recipe https://manifold.markets/shankypanky/will-stralor-send-me-a-recipe-for-a

none of you No bettors are getting any soup.

@shankypanky don't need it, I can make my own

@Stralor good. come. make it. resolve this Yes. wins all around (for a souperforecaster).

@shankypanky so here's the thing, I'm really bad at following recipes, even my own

Someone walks 50,000 steps in one day while attending the conference

Would running count or has to be strictly walking?

@alexlitz I feel like they might object to you running all around the venue but I'm not a cop I was just going to go by anyone's step counter

bought Ṁ250 It will rain YES

@saulmunn hedging

@saulmunn someone pls take my mana

bought Ṁ40 It will rain NO
reposted

@traders check out the manifest speakers list!

https://www.manifest.is/#speakers

@Joshua ok but will the Collinses' kids also be speaking, or just the Collinses

someone flies me out (chris / strutheo)

wow so evenly split and yet nobody has offered yet 🤔

@strutheo same shit for me with my survey before the last manifest

I'll be able to assemble a minyan for either speed-davening Friday night or Saturday morning

Can you define minyan? Would you count women? (If so I would be excited about helping organize it)

@RickiHeicklen

Yup, I would count women! Let's chat over DM!

(Well, to be more precise: I would intend to count any Jewish-identifying* humans past their bnei mitzvah age, unless doing so causes a harm or insult to them by their own lights. For example, I wouldn't count a coincidentally-lingering-nearby Eliezer Yudkowsky, who is of Jewish heritage but is a very public atheist, without a pretty clear indication from him that he was willing to be counted. Similarly, if there was an Orthodox woman nearby who wanted to daven with us but told us she didn't want to be counted due to her own beliefs, I'd work very hard to find a way to count to 10 without counting her, and based on last year's attendance I predict very confidently that's doable.)

*I hope this does not meme George Santos into attendance.

Someone will be wearing an apple vision pro while talking to a group of people

Temped to attend just to be that guy

boughtṀ20There will be soup m... NO
There will be soup made according to @Stralor's recipe https://manifold.markets/shankypanky/will-stralor-send-me-a-recipe-for-a
bought Ṁ10 There will be soup m... YES

I believe ✨

There will be a Ballpit

Now is one of you insider trading, or are you just hoping someone else is insider trading?

@Joshua What if they’re trading from inside the ballpit?