Manifest 2024 Prop Bets
433
120kṀ640k
resolved Jun 11
Resolved
YES
Eliezer Yudkowksy will attend
Resolved
YES
Aella will attend
Resolved
YES
At least 1 episode of "Manifold: Live!"
Resolved
YES
Someone breakdances incompetently
Resolved
YES
Users @NcyRocks and @NathanpmYoung attend and recreate the Spider-Man meme
Resolved
YES
Author signs their book for someone
Resolved
YES
There will be live music (min 2 people)
Resolved
YES
someone recites Pi to 100 digits
Resolved
YES
presenter will break into song during their talk
Resolved
YES
Role play combat with fake swords
Resolved
YES
> 4 person group hug
Resolved
YES
It will be held at Lighthaven
Resolved
YES
At least twenty guests will reattend (not speakers or staff)
Resolved
YES
User @NathanpmYoung will attend
Resolved
YES
5+ people with Wikipedia pages attend
Resolved
YES
Someone wears a partial fursuit publicly
Resolved
YES
Somebody wears something that causes an argument over whether or not it counts as a fursuit
Resolved
YES
There will be a plant that glows in the dark
Resolved
YES
There will be a large group photo
Resolved
N/A
It will rain

Manifest 2024 will take place June 7th to June 9th in Berkely California. This market is for prop bets about the event! Note that all bets are about the conference itself and not the summer camp.

Add anything that you think would be

  • Fun to predict, might or might not happen

  • Reasonably simple to track whether it happened or not (nothing too hard to count)

  • Respects people's privacy (Let people make their own "will I get laid" markets, don't make one for them)

I intend to attend, and I'll resolve everything I can. But any staff or mods are welcome to resolve any options as well, as prop bet markets are hard for any one person to manage.

Market close will be extended as necessarily if the dates change.

For markets about who will attend, I've made this market:

/Joshua/which-users-will-attend-manifest-20

There's also this for just special guests:

/DanMan314/who-will-be-a-special-guestspeaker

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ8,938
2Ṁ5,957
3Ṁ4,528
4Ṁ3,039
5Ṁ2,497
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy