121
1.6K
16K
Jun 10
87%
two or more people wear jimmy carter pins
89%
Go (game) is played physically in person
86%
Chess is played physically in person
48%
Physical spice (seasoning, hot sauce, whatever) is used by a speaker to symbolize or represent Spice from Manifold
66%
This market hits second place in 24 hour volume (screenshot)
75%
A group of five or more people break into song
66%
A conspicuous orb is held by at least three people simultaneously
49%
Grey goo / nanoweapon X-risk is discussed by a speaker
72%
A black person attends
95%
Poker is played physically in person
16%
At least one Juggalo in full make-up is present for any amount of time
39%
Multiple people bring/buy/sell plushies related to the Effective Altruism, Rationality/LessWrong, SlateStarCodex/AstralCodexTen, or Manifold communities e.g. plush shoggoth
90%
A new product or startup will be announced by an attendee
96%
There will be a large group photo
57%
There will be a plant that glows in the dark
13%
Someone publicly vomits
66%
Someone will do a backflip
39%
Somebody wears something that causes an argument over whether or not it counts as a fursuit
30%
An action that most people would prefer not happen will happen specifically because of market incentives from this option, or the previous option this one is based on (the one submitted by @Nikos ).
83%
Someone wears a partial fursuit publicly

Manifest 2024 will take place June 7th to June 9th in Berkely California. This market is for prop bets about the event! Note that all bets are about the conference itself and not the summer camp.

Add anything that you think would be

  • Fun to predict, might or might not happen

  • Reasonably simple to track whether it happened or not (nothing too hard to count)

  • Respects people's privacy (Let people make their own "will I get laid" markets, don't make one for them)

I intend to attend, and I'll resolve everything I can. But any staff or mods are welcome to resolve any options as well, as prop bet markets are hard for any one person to manage.

Market close will be extended as necessarily if the dates change.

For markets about who will attend, I've made this market:

/Joshua/which-users-will-attend-manifest-20

There's also this for just special guests:

/DanMan314/who-will-be-a-special-guestspeaker

Get Ṁ200 play money
Sort by:

I came here to bet on ‘@Stralor eats ass 🍑’ and am disappointed that it’s not listed.

@snazzlePop probably because of

Respects people's privacy (Let people make their own "will I get laid" markets, don't make one for them)

but I've got a public market on it, and S G himself added "Manifests" to the count list. fair game to add if you want, no complaints from me!

@Stralor I’m surprised that you hadn’t already added it yourself! But alas, the market is closed to new answers.

bought Ṁ20 A current or former ... YES

@snazzlePop wasn't sure I was attending until a couple days ago

A conspicuous orb is held by at least three people simultaneously

Is there a minimum size? Does it need to glow to count?

A group of five or more people break into song

Manifest 2024 will take place June 7th to June 9th in Berkely California. This market is for prop bets about the event! Note that all bets are about the conference itself and not the summer camp.

some pretty obscure things entering the props today and this one really doesn't meet the criteria so should NA?

@Joshua

Hmmm yeah I'm okay with some options here about manifold-relevant news breaking during manifest but I don't want this to turn into "what will happen anywhere in the world from June 7th to June 9th".

@Panfilo can you edit that one to something manifest related?

@Joshua if they're pivoting into global warfare and that option becomes relevant, I'll send M500 to @Panfilo as an apology

@Joshua Too late to edit but do whatever you want

@shankypanky I already saw an orgy, is that at the conference like as a seminar?

@Panfilo if it happens, then yes, but more like a workshop I think?

(and unless Manifest attendees are themselves responsible for a coup, military ceasefire, or world leader assassination, one could easily argue it's more directly relevant for attendees to have an orgy)

@Panfilo I can edit it for you if you've got another idea, but yeah ideally something that would happen at or around Manifest.

God damn it there's actually a song breakout one already

five or more dogs/cats

Do furries count?

@TheAllMemeingEye No that's its own option 😅

origami competition
bought Ṁ5 origami competition YES
five or more dogs/cats

@saulmunn are pets allowed at Lighthaven?

There will be a plant that glows in the dark

If you are curious what this is about, see /SanghyeonSeo/will-plants-glow.

Someone gets infected with Lumina probiotic (BCS3-L1) developed by Lantern Bioworks

Pre-orders went live, estimated delivery in June: https://www.luminaprobiotic.com/

bought Ṁ10 At least one attende... YES

12321

A billionaire attends

For how long do they have to be a billionaire?

Would this work?

Will anyone be able to spin a top more than ten minutes? One real try per person

It's a billetspin

OMG OMG OMG

There will be soup made according to @Stralor's recipe https://manifold.markets/shankypanky/will-stralor-send-me-a-recipe-for-a

none of you No bettors are getting any soup.

@shankypanky don't need it, I can make my own

@Stralor good. come. make it. resolve this Yes. wins all around (for a souperforecaster).

@shankypanky so here's the thing, I'm really bad at following recipes, even my own