Manifest 2024 Prop Bets
โž•
Plus
433
แน€640k
resolved Jun 11
Resolved
YES
Eliezer Yudkowksy will attend
Resolved
YES
Aella will attend
Resolved
YES
At least 1 episode of "Manifold: Live!"
Resolved
YES
Someone breakdances incompetently
Resolved
YES
Users @NcyRocks and @NathanpmYoung attend and recreate the Spider-Man meme
Resolved
YES
Author signs their book for someone
Resolved
YES
There will be live music (min 2 people)
Resolved
YES
someone recites Pi to 100 digits
Resolved
YES
presenter will break into song during their talk
Resolved
YES
Role play combat with fake swords
Resolved
YES
> 4 person group hug
Resolved
YES
It will be held at Lighthaven
Resolved
YES
At least twenty guests will reattend (not speakers or staff)
Resolved
YES
User @NathanpmYoung will attend
Resolved
YES
5+ people with Wikipedia pages attend
Resolved
YES
Someone wears a partial fursuit publicly
Resolved
YES
Somebody wears something that causes an argument over whether or not it counts as a fursuit
Resolved
YES
There will be a plant that glows in the dark
Resolved
YES
There will be a large group photo
Resolved
N/A
It will rain

Manifest 2024 will take place June 7th to June 9th in Berkely California. This market is for prop bets about the event! Note that all bets are about the conference itself and not the summer camp.

Add anything that you think would be

  • Fun to predict, might or might not happen

  • Reasonably simple to track whether it happened or not (nothing too hard to count)

  • Respects people's privacy (Let people make their own "will I get laid" markets, don't make one for them)

I intend to attend, and I'll resolve everything I can. But any staff or mods are welcome to resolve any options as well, as prop bet markets are hard for any one person to manage.

Market close will be extended as necessarily if the dates change.

For markets about who will attend, I've made this market:

/Joshua/which-users-will-attend-manifest-20

There's also this for just special guests:

/DanMan314/who-will-be-a-special-guestspeaker

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@Nikos i think this resolves yes? p sure barak had a humane ai pin

there's a comment below

@schlongenheim resolves yes :/

@alexlitz this resolves YES, right?

I had said previously that everything has to happen/be reported before market close, so I don't think we should go back and re-resolve things in most cases.

Manifold is a startup that runs Manifund, a prediction market

๐Ÿคฆ

ooh how did you know this was coming?

shame it didn't come out while we were all there not only for the prop bets but for the in-person lols

austin posted in the discord on june 7

Austin had mentioned it I believe in relation to them calling him.

despite attending manifest & not attending LO/SC, my profit in the two prop bet markets were ~basically the exact same

seems there's no alpha in actually knowing stuff, ignorance is bliss

@Ziddletwix I didnโ€™t attend either and made a 10% profit here and a 100% profit on the LessOnline market just from betting No on everything

Alright, with no testimonials in their favor I've resolved the final options to NO. Thanks for participating, everyone!

I commented that I saw someone in a full fursuit around 9pm at a campfire at glass hall in public. I was sitting with Anthony (?) and others.

Which night and what do you count as a full fursuit? The rainbow unicorn onesie doesn't count.

Yeah, it was a rainbow onesie with an actual fursuit head and hands. I asked Joshua if it counted at the time, and he said it didnt.

What's the time cutoff for these? closing ceremony, afterparty?

@MichaelWheatley until Joshua fell asleep (~2am he called it a night)

@barak you didn't come through here?

@ian I'm told he only wore it at Less Online, not Manifest

@Joshua clever boy

@Joshua this is correct. I did not put the humane ai pin on during manifest despite being asked to ... on a mostly unrelated note the charging case has been recalled for fire risk. But mostly i wanted to focus attention on American Politics Company

Reopening betting to incentivize accurate reporting of final three answers. Submissions are closed.

Actually, this happened!

@Joshua Canโ€™t believe I added that question before the 10x devaluing ๐Ÿ˜‚

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