Will the second Manifest be better than the first?
resolved Jun 17

Resolves to the majority opinion among a poll of all people who were at both the first Manifest in 2023 and the second one whenever it occurs.

"Best" is up to each attendee's personal opinion, with the restriction that they should pick a metric such that it is possible for the second to be better or worse than the first. e.g. they shouldn't reason "the first one was the best because I had never been to such a thing before, and nothing could possibly top that first experience".

If there's another similar convention/conference that isn't named "Manifest", that will still count as long as it's clearly the same sort of thing. Sponsored by Manifold, famous attendees, very talked-about on Manifold, populated by rationalists and EAs, etc.

Get Ṁ600 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
Sort by:

/market will @IsaacKing be indignant if mods or an admin resolves this market?

This is not the metric I had specified in the description, but nobody has complained, and it's not really worth my time to be constantly fighting against Manifold mods misresolving markets.

Oh, was I supposed to complain?

It was, technically, a "poll of all people who were at both the first Manifest in 2023 and the second one", though, right? Just not the specific poll you were envisioning?

I think (and how I'd interpreted the description) the intention was the poll would be only people who attended both, to gauge whether 2024 was better than 2023. this resolution was a comparison between general poll results of all attendees each year.

No, this was a section of the poll for attendees for both years

oh, then I'm not sure lol

I'd like to hear how you think this was misresolved! Resolving markets accurately is critical for Manifold's success and general usefulness. Knowing where we've fucked up helps us be better in the future. I'm not sure what was wrong with this resolution though

bought Ṁ2,000 YES

@mods I am requesting clarification on this market. Does the official Manifest survey section comparing 2023 and 2024 count?

That seems like the obvious way to do it to me, particularly with Isaac not having been online for over two weeks.

bought Ṁ31,000 YES

@Joshua resolves yes

bought Ṁ10,000 YES

where is that

@mods this should resolve yes

bought Ṁ150 NO

I enjoyed #2 more! a little better organized + better events. but it’s close I think

Number of orgies would indicate manifest 1 is superior

@JoeandSeth perhaps it was that this Manifest had too much non-orgy excitement for people to get organised


manifest is over now! bought some yes

bought Ṁ150 NO

@saulmunn hedging :P

bought Ṁ500 YES

@saulmunn you have this info now, right?

@ian Yes. @IsaacKing, can I go ahead and admin resolve this based on our feedback form results? Or is it important to you per the resolution criteria that it's a poll you run?

@rachel since Isaac is inactive, and per the mod comment above, you can resolve this

You know what they say: two is better than one!