Which users will attend Manifest 2024?
81
1.5K
8.1K
Jun 11
98%
Saul Munn - @saulmunn
93%
Michael Wheatley - @MichaelWheatley
88%
Noa Nabeshima - @NoaNabeshima
95%
Jonathan Ray - @JonathanRay
51%
Shelvacu - @Shelvacu
24%
Beam - @beam
90%
Patrick McKenzie - @patio11
94%
Joshua - @Joshua
6%
Mira - @Mira
96%
Conflux - @Conflux
89%
SneakySly - @SneakySly
94%
Aella - @Aella
84%
Eliezer Yudkowsky - @EliezerYudkowsky
94%
Robin Hanson - @RobinHanson
6%
Lex Fridman - @LexFridman
12%
Tumbles - @Tumbles
96%
Ernie - @Ernie
96%
N.C. Young - @NcyRocks
80%
Nathan Young - @NathanpmYoung
27%
Barak - @barak

Manifest 2 was announced today! It's going to be in Berkely from June 7th to June 9th, with a co-working summer camp in the days before and after.

A name resolves Yes if they attend, No if they don't attend, and N/A if I can't verify whether they attended or not.

Let's try to keep it to people with manifold accounts only for this market, to keep things plausible and to make resolution easier to verify.

If you want some insider info, check the Manifest Payments page to see who bought tickets last year.

For silly prop bets, see:

/Joshua/what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene

Get Ṁ200 play money
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Ticket aquired, just pending housing. Also can someone hit up Grimes pls

Thumbs Ok GIF by Alexandre Nart

Got my ticket, driving, just pending lodging.

I should be at 100% , yall get that remaining mana ❤ 👍

@SirCryptomind why not bet yourself up? 🧡

@shankypanky I am trying to make this account strictly Partner/Mod and use my Alt for predictions. SO I am trying to liquidate my remaining positions.

bought Ṁ10 Scott Alexander - @S... YES

Check out the speakers list!

https://www.manifest.is/#speakers

chris - @Strutheo
bought Ṁ5 chris - @Strutheo NO

That's maybe a bit high for "unsure"

Using this as a Schelling Point to say I'll be there

Ernie - @Ernie
bought Ṁ60 Ernie - @Ernie YES

Only illness or riots could keep me away

@Ernie this comment stresses me out because:

@shankypanky my house can fit 50 of us for live predictions if it come to that.

@Ernie oh this is good news for me. @Austin and @Joshua heads up ☝️

Just bought an early bird ticket!

stefanie - @shankypanky
bought Ṁ555 stefanie - @shankypanky YES

✌️

bought Ṁ1,000 Barak - @barak YES

opened a Ṁ10 Barak - @barak YES at 1.0% order

@Joshua now if you know me, you know i can be flaky

bought Ṁ10 Matty B - @mattyb YES

@mattyb ayyyy

@mattyb ❄️

@mattyb can I have your accommodation if you don't come?

boughtṀ10Patrick McKenzie - @... YES
reposted

@patio11 I loved the talk you gave at the first one!

If You Know You Know GIF by HannahWitton

I assume that only the main conference counts for this, not the camp?

@NcyRocks Yeah that was my intent