What will the low end of my p(doom) be after LessOnline + Manifest ?
AIAI DoomAI SafetyManifestManifest 2024
Basic
5
แน€1.7k
resolved Jun 13
Resolved
YES
Lower, by a bit; p(doom) minimum is now 9% or less
Resolved
NO
Higher, by a bit; p(doom) minimum is now 11% or more
Resolved
NO
Higher, by a lot; p(doom) minimum is now 15% or more
Resolved
NO
Lower, by a lot; p(doom) minimum is now 5% or less

My current p(doom) is "10% to 40%." This makes market definitions a little confusing. TO BE CLEAR: We're looking at the lower number here, and its trajectory as a result of spending time in the Bay Area. So, for example, if my p(doom) is now "11% to 80%", that resolves as "Higher, by a bit"; if my p(doom) is now "16% to 20%", that resolves as "Higher, by a lot."

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Updated p(doom) low end is 9%, high end is 49%.

9-49 is a wide range to have that much precision.

range of probabilities integrate to a single probability Any changes so far?

The tricky thing here is that we don't know how you come up with your lower end.

Oops, didnโ€™t make this a sums to 100% market, thanks for whoever arbed this into reasonableness

@DaveK If the lower bound stays 10, would it not resolve to NO on every option?

@Bayesian Yes, correct

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