What will be the single most impressive action that I witness at Less Online & Manifest?
What will be the single most impressive action that I witness at Less Online & Manifest?
14
3.6kṀ1323
resolved Jun 11
100%24%Other
2%
Someone dancing
2%
Someone calling someone famous and having them pick up
7%
Someone wrestling or engaging in some other form of combat
2%
Someone playing poker
3%
Someone singing or playing an instrument
2%
Someone making a prediction
2%
Someone giving a Less Online speech/talk
7%
Someone giving a Manifest speech/talk
3%
Someone persuading someone of something in a conversation
3%
Someone doing a magic trick
11%
Someone causes a market to resolve in a hilarious and unexpected way
6%
A rap battle
3%
Someone destroys a piñata in broad daylight
4%
Someone builds a pyramid
9%
Shibari
9%
Something crossword related

There are sure to be many impressive people doing impressive actions at Less Online, Summer Camp, and Manifest. I will try to keep track of the impressive actions I see by writing them down in comments of this market.

Then at the end of the trip, I will try to fairly determine what the most impressive action I saw was and resolve this market to the corresponding option.

I am not currently sure exactly how I will choose which action is most impressive, and will probably update these resolution criteria later.

I think that I will probably be biased towards novelty, and would be more impressed by something I have never seen done before. So if I see two very similarly impressive actions but one of them is new to me, I'd probably consider that action more impressive.

Aside from that subjective element of what I have and haven't personally seen before, I will try to keep my personal taste out of the market as much as possible in order to keep the resolution as predictable as possible for traders.

I might also ask for the opinion of other people at LO/Manifest, or create a poll. It might depend on how many people end up trading in this market.


You can submit additional options to this market, or suggest them in the comments for me to add, but please try to avoid overlap with existing options. If I think a submitted option is redundant with an existing option, I will edit it.

Please also try to keep submissions narrow even if they do not overlap with existing options, so as to allow room for other people to add options that do not overlap with your submission. A more specific submission will also probably get you more favorable odds to bet on.

I will not trade in this market.

See also:

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ927
2Ṁ484
3Ṁ194
4Ṁ186
5Ṁ115


Sort by:
1y

Saw many impressive people doing impressive things, but I was most impressed by Michael's sketches of various users' avatars and various aspects of the Peloponnesian War. Therefore resolves to Other.


answered1y
Something crossword related
1y

Impressive crossword skills during the quant trading competition

1y

Impressive artistic skills from @MichaelWheatley

answered1y
Someone builds a pyramid
1y

Kudos to @TonyPepperoni

1y

If you'd like to call your shot:

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
ṀWhy use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy