Key Races

This dashboard covers the most competitive races in the 2024 US election.

  • Democrats Jon Tester and Sherrod Brown must hold their Senate seats in states expected to vote for Trump, or else the Republicans will win the Senate majority in November.

  • Meanwhile, multiple GOP Congress resignations have left the Republicans with a slim majority in the House, which Democrats are keen to retake.

Your predictions here will contribute to the aggregated forecast at manifold.markets/politics

59%
If Biden beats Trump, Jon Tester wins the Montana Senate race
19%
If Biden loses to Trump, Jon Tester wins the Montana Senate race
60%
If Biden beats Trump, Sherrod Brown wins the Ohio Senate Race
18%
If Biden loses to Trump, Sherrod Brown wins the Ohio Senate Race
NBC News
Sherrod Brown and Bernie Moreno rush to define each other as Ohio's Senate race shifts to the general election
Brown and Moreno are attempting to run on their own brands of populism while casting the other as out of touch in one of the year’s top Senate battles.
58%
Bernie Moreno (Republican Party)
42%
Sherrod Brown (Democratic Party)
0%
Other
FiveThirtyEight
Ohio : U.S. Senate : 2024 Polls
The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight.
12%
Greater than D+2.5
19%
D+0 to D+2.5
22%
R+0 to R+2.5
26%
R+2.5 to R+5
AP News
A Montana farmer with a flattop and ample lobbyist cash stands between the GOP and Senate control
Tester has survived three close elections and a changed national political landscape to emerge as the lone Democrat still holding high office in Montana.
63%
Tim Sheehy (Republican Party Likely Nominee)
37%
Jon Tester (Democratic Party Likely Nominee)
0%
Other
FiveThirtyEight
Montana : U.S. Senate : 2024 Polls
The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight.
6%
Greater than D+2.5
29%
D+0 to D+2.5
12%
R+0 to R+2.5
17%
R+2.5 to R+5
Vox
Could Republican resignations flip the House to Democrats?
The GOP majority is quite small, but a Democratic takeover pre-election still seems extremely unlikely.
37%
AK-00 Mary Peltola (D)
5%
AL-02 NEW SEAT
49%
AZ-01 David Schweikert (R) - Won by 0.88%
56%
AZ-06 Juan Ciscomani (R) - Won by 1.50%
27%
GOP Pres, GOP Congress: GOP trifecta
22%
Dem Pres, Dem Congress: Dem trifecta
21%
GOP Pres, GOP Senate, Dem House
20%
Dem Pres, GOP Senate, Dem House
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