Dem means "Democratic Party." GOP means "Republican Party."
[Party] Congress means "[Party] control of House and Senate."
This market will resolve after all three underlying questions have been resolved.
President (Pres): resolves after the AP calls the race.
House: resolves after the AP calls party control of the House.
If there are independents/3rd party winners that are known to be intending to caucus with a major party (GOP or Democrats), they will be included as part of party control.
If at the time of the general election there are already scheduled special elections on which control hinges, or a runoff is triggered by the general election, we'll wait for those to resolve.
Senate: resolves after the AP calls party control of the Senate.
If there are independents/3rd party winners that are known to be intending to caucus with a major party (Bernie Sanders is a general example), they will be included as part of party control.
If at the time of the general election there are already scheduled special elections on which control hinges, or a runoff is triggered by the general election, we'll wait for those to resolve.
Related questions
@JaredHoffman ya I mean, true, but odds are down to bout 20% on Manifold, and if she runs her odds of winning are even lower, but I guess there's something like a 3% chance or whatever that she'll be in the senate in 2025?
@benshindel i think she has pretty much 0 chance, nobody wins as a true independent in a three way race, especially not with her approvals. all the indies who win are fake indies.