Balance of Power: Who will control the government after the 2024 US presidential election?
837
100kṀ2.1m
resolved Nov 15
100%99.0%
R President, R Senate, R House - Republican Trifecta
0.2%
D President, D Senate, D House - Democrat Trifecta
0.0%
D President, R Senate, R House
0.0%
D President, D Senate, R House
0.2%
D President, R Senate, D House
0.0%
R Pres, D Senate, D House
0.5%
R President, R Senate, D House
0.0%
R President, D Senate, R House
  • Dem means "Democratic Party." GOP means "Republican Party."

  • [Party] Congress means "[Party] control of House and Senate."

  • This market will resolve after all three underlying questions have been resolved.

  • President (Pres): resolves after the AP calls the race.

  • House: resolves after the AP calls party control of the House.

    • If there are independents/3rd party winners that are known to be intending to caucus with a major party (GOP or Democrats), they will be included as part of party control.

    • If at the time of the general election there are already scheduled special elections on which control hinges, or a runoff is triggered by the general election, we'll wait for those to resolve.

  • Senate: resolves after the AP calls party control of the Senate.

    • If there are independents/3rd party winners that are known to be intending to caucus with a major party (Bernie Sanders is a general example), they will be included as part of party control.

    • If at the time of the general election there are already scheduled special elections on which control hinges, or a runoff is triggered by the general election, we'll wait for those to resolve.

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