Who will control the government after the 2024 US presidential election?
56
405
2.3K
2025
28%
GOP Pres, GOP Congress: GOP trifecta
23%
Dem Pres, Dem Congress: Dem trifecta
20%
Dem Pres, GOP Senate, Dem House
17%
GOP Pres, GOP Senate, Dem House
7%
Dem Pres, GOP Congress
2%
Dem Pres, Dem Senate, GOP House
2%
GOP Pres, Dem Congress
1.1%
GOP Pres, Dem Senate, GOP House
  • Dem means "Democratic Party." GOP means "Republican Party."

  • [Party] Congress means "[Party] control of House and Senate."

  • This market will resolve after all three underlying questions have been resolved.

  • President (Pres): resolves after the AP calls the race.

  • House: resolves after the AP calls party control of the House.

    • If there are independents/3rd party winners that are known to be intending to caucus with a major party (GOP or Democrats), they will be included as part of party control.

    • If at the time of the general election there are already scheduled special elections on which control hinges, or a runoff is triggered by the general election, we'll wait for those to resolve.

  • Senate: resolves after the AP calls party control of the Senate.

    • If there are independents/3rd party winners that are known to be intending to caucus with a major party (Bernie Sanders is a general example), they will be included as part of party control.

    • If at the time of the general election there are already scheduled special elections on which control hinges, or a runoff is triggered by the general election, we'll wait for those to resolve.

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opened a Ṁ10,000 GOP Pres, GOP Congre... YES at 24% order

take my order on a GOP trifecta in 2024

@SemioticRivalry Spicy 🔥

If there are independents/3rd party winners that are known to be intending to caucus with a major party (Bernie Sanders is a general example), they will be included as part of party control.

Bernie Sanders we know of course, but what about Krysten Sinema?

@PlasmaBallin she's not running

@benshindel She actually hasn’t committed either way yet to my knowledge

@JaredHoffman ya I mean, true, but odds are down to bout 20% on Manifold, and if she runs her odds of winning are even lower, but I guess there's something like a 3% chance or whatever that she'll be in the senate in 2025?

@benshindel i think she has pretty much 0 chance, nobody wins as a true independent in a three way race, especially not with her approvals. all the indies who win are fake indies.