Dem means "Democratic Party." GOP means "Republican Party."
[Party] Congress means "[Party] control of House and Senate."
This market will resolve after all three underlying questions have been resolved.
President (Pres): resolves after the AP calls the race.
House: resolves after the AP calls party control of the House.
If there are independents/3rd party winners that are known to be intending to caucus with a major party (GOP or Democrats), they will be included as part of party control.
If at the time of the general election there are already scheduled special elections on which control hinges, or a runoff is triggered by the general election, we'll wait for those to resolve.
Senate: resolves after the AP calls party control of the Senate.
If there are independents/3rd party winners that are known to be intending to caucus with a major party (Bernie Sanders is a general example), they will be included as part of party control.
If at the time of the general election there are already scheduled special elections on which control hinges, or a runoff is triggered by the general election, we'll wait for those to resolve.
Related questions
The senate is quite high volatility, as it can be swung easily by 1-2 elections. So not super correlated with general election margin. And house and Pres. election are not so correlated that they only go opposite ways 17% of the time
No, presidential years have much less ticket splitting. Also, winning the Presidency basically gives you an extra senate seat, so there's more correlation than you expect
0.01% is actually wild for R Pres, D senate, D house. Imagine a scenario where Kamala has a scandal (or Trump just experiences a massive popularity boost from assassination attempt) and loses while generally dems are popular and win house and senate. That happens in way more than 1 in 10,000 universes.
R Pres, D senate, R house seems quite plausible to me: republicans have a good election but dems have particularly likable senate candidates (and reps particularly unlikable ones) and pick up one seat (this kind of happened last midterms more or less!)
I don’t think that’s true about Pres years having less ticket splitting. It’s quite normal for popular senate candidates to run 5-10% ahead of a Pres candidate!
Ticket splitting has gone way down since 2020 in red states. Nobody runs 10 points ahead anymore. See: Steve Bullock, Phil Bredesen, Tim Ryan, Doug Jones
If polling is any indication, before Biden pulled out, he was polling like 15% behind swing state dem senate candidates!
The dem senate candidate's opponents are basically winning by name ID, happens every cycle with incumbents. The Dems are all incumbents (except AZ).
@JaredHoffman ya I mean, true, but odds are down to bout 20% on Manifold, and if she runs her odds of winning are even lower, but I guess there's something like a 3% chance or whatever that she'll be in the senate in 2025?
@benshindel i think she has pretty much 0 chance, nobody wins as a true independent in a three way race, especially not with her approvals. all the indies who win are fake indies.