Can Democrats keep the Senate if Joe Biden loses?
45
348
3.3K
Nov 11
59%
If Biden beats Trump, Jon Tester wins the Montana Senate race
19%
If Biden loses to Trump, Jon Tester wins the Montana Senate race
60%
If Biden beats Trump, Sherrod Brown wins the Ohio Senate Race
18%
If Biden loses to Trump, Sherrod Brown wins the Ohio Senate Race

Control of the senate may come down to whether Democratic senators Tester and Brown can hold their senate seats.

This is an unlinked market of conditional statements, to measure the odds of these candidates winning their races depending on if Biden does or does not win the presidency. Options will resolve N/A if the base condition is not met.

Note: Presumptive candidates are listed in this market, but if the actual nominees turn out to be someone different they will be used instead. For example, If Kamala Harris is the nominee she will be edited in to all options instead of Biden.

For more information and arbitrage, you can also check out the Key Races dashboard.

Get Ṁ200 play money
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This market is a bit off from the main Senate markets, assuming a 50/50 chance of Trump/Biden winning.

They need one of Florida or Texas too if Biden loses

opened a Ṁ1,000 If Biden beats Trump... NO at 80% order

No

bought Ṁ10 If Biden beats Trump... YES

Polling averages from 538:

Ohio:

Montana:

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