Can Democrats keep the Senate if they lose the presidency?
61
10kṀ31k
resolved Nov 7
Resolved
N/A
If the Dem Nom beats Trump, Jon Tester wins the Montana Senate race
Resolved
N/A
If the Dem Nom beats Trump, Sherrod Brown wins the Ohio Senate Race
Resolved
NO
If the Dem Nom loses to Trump, Jon Tester wins the Montana Senate race
Resolved
NO
If Dem Nom loses to Trump, Sherrod Brown wins the Ohio Senate Race

Control of the senate may come down to whether Democratic senators Tester and Brown can hold their senate seats.

This is an unlinked market of conditional statements, to measure the odds of these candidates winning their races depending on if Biden does or does not win the presidency. Options will resolve N/A if the base condition is not met.

Note: Presumptive candidates are listed in this market, but if the actual nominees turn out to be someone different they will be used instead. For example, If Kamala Harris is the nominee she will be edited in to all options instead of Biden.

For more information and arbitrage, you can also check out the Key Races dashboard.

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bought Ṁ2,131 NO

@mods @ManifoldPolitics two N/As two NOs

@mods edit market

This market is a bit off from the main Senate markets, assuming a 50/50 chance of Trump/Biden winning.

They need one of Florida or Texas too if Biden loses

opened a Ṁ1,000 NO at 80% order

No

bought Ṁ10 YES

Polling averages from 538:

Ohio:

Montana:

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