This is fucked. Everything is so fucked.

Cook Political Report move MT to "Lean Republican"

1/3 seems like a little too optimistic for Tester.

Split Ticket has 25% for Tester

https://split-ticket.org/senate-2024-ratings/

Looking worse.

Not looking good.

Tester doesn't think so: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/tester-denies-tight-race-says-internal-polling-has-him-beating-sheehy-kicking-his-a

every candidate says they're doing fine. what's telling is when they fail to publicly release polls that show that to be the case.

Now Likely R (81%) in the DDHQ forecast https://elections2024.thehill.com/forecast/2024/senate/montana/

Is it Jon Test-over?

https://www.axios.com/2024/04/24/jon-tester-biden-democrats

As one would expect for a state as red as Montana, Tester is trying to distance himself from Biden.

The poll from J.L. Partners, provided exclusively to the Montana State News Bureau, shows Sheehy leading Tester within the margin of error, by 48% to 45% with 7% of those polled undecided.

https://helenair.com/news/state-regional/government-politics/elections/poll-shows-tight-senate-race-in-montana/article_bbc0a49c-f5e3-11ee-8158-2b2ad843f5b7.html#tracking-source=home-top-story

Unsurprisingly, undecideds seem to lean R, and voters overall are focused on issues that are good for Republicans.

@SemioticRivalry I find it interesting that the Democrats are much more concerned about "threats to democracy", and the Republicans are much more concerned about "election integrity". To me they're almost synonymous.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 framing is everything

@SemioticRivalry "Daily Mail's preferred pollster has Sheehy leading Tester."

I think given that Biden lost Montana by 16 points in 2020, the market below should trade a decent amount higher than this one.

Alright shenanigans are over, back to trying to actual predict this. Newly subsidized arbitrage:

Arbitrage here:

note the different titles

@jacksonpolack I'm dumb, cant tell the difference.

looked at the data again, still can't see it. take my limits.

@SemioticRivalry I'm in.

@Joshua Whaat

@nikki

The Split Ticket Is Real!

@Joshua my math says that the environment would have to be ~D+10 for this race to be a tossup. we'll see if i'm an idiot

@SemioticRivalry Is your math based purely on the Presidential election, or does it incorporate other factors?

@houstonEuler i'd rather not go into too much detail to my main counterparty, but i'll just say that it's a very simple method but isn't super well known.

@Joshua Are you just betting this higher so you get #1 in Master's league?

@TimothyJohnson5c16 there are about ten simultaneous mana fights happening across the site right now hahahah

Like this one: