Will Jon Tester be reëlected?
55
822
895
Nov 22
38%
chance

To his Montana U.S. Senate seat.

Get Ṁ200 play money
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The poll from J.L. Partners, provided exclusively to the Montana State News Bureau, shows Sheehy leading Tester within the margin of error, by 48% to 45% with 7% of those polled undecided.


https://helenair.com/news/state-regional/government-politics/elections/poll-shows-tight-senate-race-in-montana/article_bbc0a49c-f5e3-11ee-8158-2b2ad843f5b7.html#tracking-source=home-top-story

Unsurprisingly, undecideds seem to lean R, and voters overall are focused on issues that are good for Republicans.

@SemioticRivalry I find it interesting that the Democrats are much more concerned about "threats to democracy", and the Republicans are much more concerned about "election integrity". To me they're almost synonymous.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 framing is everything

@SemioticRivalry "Daily Mail's preferred pollster has Sheehy leading Tester."

I think given that Biden lost Montana by 16 points in 2020, the market below should trade a decent amount higher than this one.

Alright shenanigans are over, back to trying to actual predict this. Newly subsidized arbitrage:

bought Ṁ45 NO

Arbitrage here:

note the different titles

bought Ṁ20 NO

@jacksonpolack I'm dumb, cant tell the difference.

opened a Ṁ5,000 NO at 36% order

looked at the data again, still can't see it. take my limits.

filled a Ṁ5,000 YES at 36% order

@Joshua Whaat

@nikki

The Split Ticket Is Real!

@Joshua my math says that the environment would have to be ~D+10 for this race to be a tossup. we'll see if i'm an idiot

bought Ṁ1,000 YES

@SemioticRivalry Is your math based purely on the Presidential election, or does it incorporate other factors?

@houstonEuler i'd rather not go into too much detail to my main counterparty, but i'll just say that it's a very simple method but isn't super well known.

@Joshua Are you just betting this higher so you get #1 in Master's league?

bought Ṁ20 YES

@TimothyJohnson5c16 there are about ten simultaneous mana fights happening across the site right now hahahah

Like this one:

New Jersey Friends GIF by GIPHY News

bought Ṁ1,000 YES

I always forget that "reëlect" is a real word.

Tester POTUS 2024