Will eventually resolve to the party which won the popular vote for the race, as determined by the local, state, and ultimately federal governments.
In the case the race is called by the major news organizations, the market may optionally resolve early.
This market covers events up to and including Election Day, November 5: if Party A's candidate X wins the popular vote that day, but intervening events cause the next inaugurated Senator to be from Party B, the market will resolve to Party A.
If candidate X switches party affiliations, the switch will not affect the outcome if it is after the beginning of Election Day, local time.
This race might be critical to which party controls the senate in 2024!
I've added a large subsidy here, and edited in the presumptive nominees for each party.
For more information and arbitrage, you can also check out the new Key Races dashboard!
Note that if those are not the nominees, this market still resolves to the party of the winning candidate.