Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel before the Israel–Hamas war ends?
102
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2025
50%
chance

Resolves YES when Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be the Prime Minister of Israel or NO when the Israel–Hamas war ends, whichever happens first.

The war "ending" is defined, for the purposes of this market, as the Wikipedia page on the 2023 Israel–Hamas war no longer saying "status: ongoing" in the infobox. This includes the status being changed to indicate the war transitioning into a frozen conflict, which Wikipedia tends to do when conflicts are no longer active but never officially ended: the war will be considered "over" for the purposes of this question if that happens.

In the case of Wikipedia listing the war as no longer "ongoing", I'll wait some time to ensure the change is not reverted, and for any edit war to conclude. Then I'll resolve the market based on whether Netanyahu was Prime Minister at the time the change appeared to become final.

I reserve the right to use a more sensible definition if this turns out to be a bad one, but the spirit is to include both official and de facto ends to the war, whilst deferring to a fairly reliable third-party information aggregator like Wikipedia.

Closing date will be extended as needed.

Addendum Nov 30th 2023: At time of writing, Wikipedia describes the war's status as "temporary ceasefire". If this is promoted to something more permanent and there isn't an edit war over it, I'll resolve the market as if the war ended at the beginning of the ceasefire. Otherwise, I'll consider this a temporary situation not sufficient to resolve the market, as I would have if any other change from "ongoing" wasn't permanent.

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