Will consult major news sources as well as statements from Israel, Hamas, and mediating countries to determine whether a ceasefire deal has been agreed to by both sides. market closes on january 20th, 2025.
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3.00@Epistemic_Trespasser from the draft, https://whyy.org/articles/draft-ceasefire-deal-israel-hamas-what-to-know/, the ceasefire deal is not something decided on at a single date but an ongoing process of negotiation, as the second phase of the deal will take place after the first phase starts but before it finishes (Day 16).
Are you interested in the prospects of the entire deal being completed, or the just the initial first phase being agreed upon? (The second phase, covering the complete withdrawal of Gaza, seems most likely to me where negotiations might subsequently fall apart and the deal collapse).
@MingCat Trump's team is signalling that they don't need this to happen post-inauguration via Witkoff, and Biden might rush it to ensure it doesn't turn into his Iran hostages just in case they're lying. Plan already has lots of specific numbers (33 hostages, 42 days), and isn't permanent, so it seems realistic.