Will the International Court of Justice (ICJ) determine that Israel committed genocide in Gaza?
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In the current South African lawsuit against Israel.

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can't determine they're committing genocide when they're not lol.

kolod balevav penimah, nefesh yehudi homiyah!

bought Ṁ80 of NO

"determine that Israel committed genocide" - No.

In terms of incitement charges, they are typically separate from the act of genocide itself, right? Incitement can be a part of the process leading to genocide, but it is not the same as committing genocide, or am I wrong?

How would @Shump resolve in regards to this?

predicts YES

@M_HK_FA This is specifically for the crime of genocide, the way it is defined in international law. I am not aware that "genocide incitement" is a crime in international law, but it won't count anyways. I have this market for war crimes more broadly

predicts NO

@Shump Thank you! :)

predicts YES

@causal_agency We have markets for that!

predicts YES

Interesting to listen

South Africa's case is so good. Obviously israel has committed genocide in gaza. However, ICJ is funded by america and appointed by the biden administration. Biden and Blinken will be found complicit in genocide. You can't run for president if you are found complicit in genocide. The case against israel won't be allowed to be found with merit.

bought Ṁ50 of YES

Biden and Blinken will be found complicit in genocide.

By who (if the IJC is apparently appointed by the Biden administration)? Do you want to start a prediction market for this?

You can't run for president if you are found complicit in genocide.

Seems this might require an atrocity crimes investigation by the US first (What if a President Committed Genocide or Other Atrocity Crimes?)

Huh. Weird one. Like. They're not. But the ICJ isn't always the sanest place, and Bibi has talked about having Alan Dershowitz represent them, in terms of how serious Israel is taking this. I think the answer is probably no, but prob is >20%, like it is now.

@Najawin It's tricky. How do you prove genocide? In addition to mass killing, you need to show intent. The problem is that so many media people, celebrities, ordinary people and even ministers have made dehumanizing, genocidal statements since the war started. The South African lawsuit is full of these examples. So now Israel would have to defend itself by saying things like "they didn't mean it" or "they're not the ones actually making decisions".

predicts YES

@Shump Oh, we know they're not the ones making decisions. That's exactly the defense. They're not in the chain of command. Hell, Bibi is barely in the chain of command at this point.

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