In the current South African lawsuit against Israel.
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Short answer: about 15% today (Sep 21, 2025).
Why: the bar for a merits finding of genocide at the ICJ is extremely high (specific intent + acts), and the Court often opts for narrower breaches (e.g., failure to prevent/punish incitement, or violations tied to provisional-measures compliance). That said, the probability has ticked up a bit in light of:
A new UN Commission of Inquiry report concluding genocide has been committed in Gaza (not binding on the ICJ but influential context). Reuters+2The Guardian+2
Growing third-state support/interventions joining South Africa’s case (e.g., Brazil just joined this week). Al Jazeera
The ICJ’s prior orders indicating plausible genocide-related rights and imposing provisional measures (history/background). Human Rights Watch+1
If you want, I can also keep this as a living forecast and nudge the number up or down whenever there’s a new ICJ order or filing.
International Court of Justice (ICJ)
Application instituting proceedings (South Africa v. Israel):
https://www.icj-cij.org/node/203394
Order of 26 Jan 2024 (Provisional Measures):
https://www.icj-cij.org/node/203447
Order of 28 Mar 2024 (Additional Provisional Measures):
https://www.icj-cij.org/node/203847
Order of 24 May 2024 (Further measures re: Rafah):
https://www.icj-cij.org/node/204091
ICJ case hub (all filings & orders in one place):
https://www.icj-cij.org/case/192
International Criminal Court (ICC)
Prosecutor’s statement applying for arrest warrants (20 May 2024):
https://www.icc-cpi.int/news/statement-icc-prosecutor-karim-aa-khan-kc-applications-arrest-warrants-situation-state
Pre-Trial Chamber press release noting warrants & rejecting Israel’s challenges (21 Nov 2024):
https://www.icc-cpi.int/news/situation-state-palestine-icc-pre-trial-chamber-i-rejects-state-israels-challenges
Defendant pages (showing “Arrest warrant issued on 21 November 2024”):
Netanyahu — https://www.icc-cpi.int/defendant/netanyahu
Gallant — https://www.icc-cpi.int/defendant/gallant
UN Human Rights System (OHCHR / UN experts)
Special Rapporteur Francesca Albanese, “Anatomy of a Genocide” (A/HRC/55/73) – OHCHR page:
https://www.ohchr.org/sites/default/files/documents/hrbodies/hrcouncil/sessions-regular/session55/advance-versions/a-hrc-55-73-auv.pdf
OHCHR press release on the report (Mar 26, 2024):
https://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2024/03/states-must-adhere-obligations-under-genocide-convention-prevent-further
UN Commission of Inquiry (COI) legal analysis concluding genocide (2025):
Press release — https://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2025/09/israel-has-committed-genocide-gaza-strip-un-commission-finds
Full report PDF (A/HRC/60/CRP.3) — https://www.ohchr.org/sites/default/files/documents/hrbodies/hrcouncil/sessions-regular/session60/advance-version/a-hrc-60-crp-3.pdf
UN Agencies / Humanitarian Bodies
OCHA “Reported Impact Snapshot | Gaza Strip” (12 Jun 2024):
https://www.ochaopt.org/content/reported-impact-snapshot-gaza-strip-12-june-2024
OCHA “Reported Impact Snapshot | Gaza Strip” (PDF example, 11 Jun 2025):
https://www.ochaopt.org/sites/default/files/Gaza_Reported_Impact_Snapshot_11_June_2025.pdf
UNRWA Gaza Situation Report (example PDF #135, 11 Sep 2024):
https://www.unrwa.org/sites/default/files/content/resources/unrwa_gaza_sitrep_135_11september_2024_eng.pdf
@Dulaman Yeah ICC is more serious. Even there no extermination charges or anything.
I think the probability is quite low. What do you think it is? These UN reports don't make a convincing case for genocidal intent. You'd have to go against ICJ precedent.
@nathanwei based on stuff with Serbia I think it's likely that icj will go for a no. But something does feel different. So intuition makes me more cautious.
@Dulaman I mean there is a lot more media coverage of this than Serbia. I suspect there will be some convention breach, probably incitement, but no genocide.
@Dulaman In Serbia there were actual acts of genocide, i.e. Srebenica, in this case there is no genocidal acts. No specific intent to destroy the Gazan civilians as such, hence civilians evacuated before starting operations. They do snipe and kill military-aged males who ignore evacuation orders which is ethically problematic but it's not genocide. Without a Srebenica-style massacre or Armenia or Holocaust it seems pretty hard to establish genocidal intent. The precedent in Croatia v Serbia says genocidal intent must be the only reasonable inference. I don't think Netanyahu has genocidal intent. He even doesn't want to resettle Gaza.
@nathanwei the Israeli military is doing double tap strikes on hospitals. The percentage of civilian deaths is in the 85-90% range. They are using mass starvation as a weapon.
@Dulaman I'm not sure about 85-90%.. The Guardian reported that, and this includes "civilian" combatants who are not members of Hamas as civilians, and it doesn't indicate genocidal intent. Being indiscriminate would be like 98%. I don't think Israel is using mass starvation as a weapon now (yes, a few months ago they were using the threat of mass starvation as a weapon), and the food situation in Gaza has improved greatly in the last two months, but again though that's a war crime (to use the threat of mass starvation as a weapon) that's not genocidal intent. Neither of those shows genocidal intent. The double tap strike on the hospital was a one-off thing that Netanyahu immediately apologized for and the specific intent there seemed to be to target what Israel believed was Hamas. Israel genuinely believes Hamas operates out of hospitals, and they are at least not completely wrong. In fact they are correct. There's no question that Israel has breached IHL but there's no specific intent to destroy the Palestinians as such. There are war crimes sure, but not on the level of Dresden or Hiroshima, which were far worse and weren't genocide either. Lack of intent to destroy the Gazan civilians as such is the key thing.
In any case, I'm glad to see you significantly below 50%. I think 35% is too high and I'm half of that, 15-20%.
@Dulaman Again none of these are acts of genocide unless you can show the only reasonable inference is a specific intent to destroy the people as such a la Srebenica and as per the Croatia v Serbia precedent. Even the other massacres in Bosnia didn't count. Srebenica counted because they killed thousands in cold blood after a surrender. The bar is really high.
Apart from intent, the acts themselves need the scale or quality of biologically destroying the group/part of it, or at the very least threatening it's survival.
A single or a couple homicides (even if committed with genocidal intent) ARE NOT genocide according to ICJ's understanding & precedent. It's also not genocide because claiming 'any act with intent = genocide' leads to absurdities, such as isolated incidents of 9 yo kids practicing bullying (mental/bodily harm) with bad intent being genocide, something that clearly banalizes the term and renders it irrelevant.
That being said, Palestineans as an ethnic group are NOT even remotely close to being destroyed or having it's survival threatened. Less than half a percent of ethnic palis were killed (2023-2025). Less than 1% of Palestineans residing in israelistine died. Even counting the Gazan subpart of the pali population, only 2.6% died! Remember, the ICJ has already considered 4.4% "not substantial"/not enough in the past. Demographically, they're not even close to destruction. From 14 million ethnic palis circa 2023, now we have almost 15 million. The Palestinean population inside WB+Gaza also grew, and there have been 2x more recorded births than deaths in the Gaza strip. Life expectancy rebounded to ~60 yo, enough to grow up, have kids, raise them till they're adults and get old, perpetuating the group.
@HenriConfucius The GHM death toll is not quite 4.4% of the Gazans population, it's about two-thirds of that. Srebenica was found to be a genocidal act, of Srebenica not of Bosnian Muslims writ large.
Yes. 4.4% was in Bosnia, the conclusion being that this number wasn't enough for a Bosnia wide genocide
However there was a genocide in the city of Srebrenica, where 40%~80% of the population was killed. It's a subpart of the wider Bosnian population
The thing is: Gaza is already a subpart of the pali population. Only ~2% died, this not substantial. NRI is also positive, therefore they're not at risk of being biologically destroyed: there's no genocide in Gaza. Regardless of intent.
@HenriConfucius I think 2% is low, it might be more like 4%. Official estimates are 3%, going by Spagat et al it's in the 4-5% range, so basically the same as the ~4.4% in Bosnia. Still, a far cry from Srebenica. And official GHM estimates of ~3% are what the ICJ has to go by.
But yeah that's a good point. If the population isn't destroyed, that could be disqualifying. I think the real core weakness in the ICJ case against Israel is lack of genocidal intent. Israel evacuates civilians before starting operations, and just agreed to a Trump deal to end the war. Clearly, Israel does not have a specific intent to destroy the Gazans as such. Yes, they have not been destroyed. There is also a thing called intent to commit genocide without committing it, but Israel had plenty of opportunities to do it.
Intent to commit genocide arguably describes what Hamas did on 10/7. Though I guess some of the kibbutzim had very high death rates so maybe it counts as genocide. Also Hamas isn't a signatory to the Genocide Convention so they aren't bound by it in the same way that Israel is.
@nathanwei of October 7th is considered a genocide wouldn't that still target Israel since they killed many Israeli civilians and combatants being kidnapped due to the Hannibal directive?
@Samaritan Huh? No. How many of the 1200 were killed by Israel? I would guess some low number, probably low double digits, concordant with the usual low rate of friendly fire during war. Maybe 1% or 2%? Israel shooting on 10/7 at Hamas and Palestinian "civilians" participating in 10/7 who were taking Israeli civilians, even if it endangers the hostages, is most definitely not a form of genocide. There's no genocidal intent! The intent is to get rid of Hamas and prevent them from taking hostages. Hamas had actual genocidal intent.
To use an analogy to the famous genocide targeting Jews, the Holocaust was a genocide, but if the Allies bombed Auschwitz, that wouldn't make them also genocidal. And it still wouldn't be genocide if the Allies had bombed it deciding that the Jews there were being tortured and if some of them died it might be better of them.
@Samaritan Yeah, bullshit. You expect me to believe that 600+ of the 1200 people killed on October 7 were killed by Israel, rather than by Hamas? Any evidence?
@nathanwei of the civilians it's likely. Idf testimony? AK47s can't burn cars down or tear down modern buildings. Obviously that was with something stronger, like helicopters and tanks.
Do you still believe there were 40 beheaded babies and mass rapes that day too?
