Buying more no. Israel responds in July 2025. By then there will quite likely be a ceasefire. I think their response will be pretty convincing.

@Shump To clarify this is about if the state of Israel committed genocide, right? This is different than just some "genocidal acts" happening in Gaza, yes?

I would not be terribly surprised if there is an instance of some insane Kahanist soldier shooting a random crowd of Palestinians, and that would be a "genocidal act", but I am also sure that there is no dolus specialis on the part of the Israeli state.

The ICJ already ruled that Israel should make sure that there are no genocidal acts in Gaza.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/12/04/israel-gaza-palestinians-amnesty-genocide-report/

Amnesty International released a report regarding whether a genocide has occurred

@GammaLaser I don't think this should affect our market probability. The ICJ will make its own judgment and not follow Amnesty. It's rather well known that Amnesty has a particular position on this issue, for instance they also called the "right of return" a human right according to international law, but that's wrong as the UNGA 194 is non-binding and any other law about the "right of return" doesn't apply retroactively. They are not international lawyers. I'm not updating here.

@nathanwei their view on right of return is not relevant to whether this is a genocide

@GammaLaser it shows that they're not a neutral (or reasonable) party about this and shouldn't be taken seriously.

(If you read the report, there's also a bunch of places where they flat out say "okay this doesn't meet the legal definition but we don't like that and we're changing the definition").

@ShakedKoplewitz when you say “they’re not a neutral or reasonable party about ‘this’”, you are conflating right of return with question the market is asking

@GammaLaser "string theory is probably correct, Joe says so so it should settle as yes"

"But Joe's a flat earther, he's clearly not a serious physicist"

"Why are you conflating the shape of the earth with questions about string theory, they're two different things".

Holocaust historians including Omer Bartov and Barry Trachtenberg are calling it a genocide. I think this is underpriced as Anglosphere public opinion and media coverage diverges widely from the consensus of international human rights lawyers.

@GammaLaser

Do you have a source saying that the consensus among human rights lawyers is that it's a genocide?

Both the historians you mention are have long held strong anti-Israel views. Because whether or not this is a genocide depends on Israel's intent a lot of smart people who happen to be anti-zionist understandably come to the view that it's a genocide. However, this is different from from proving this intent in court.

@GammaLaser leftist academics diverging from mainstream opinion is hardly unprecedented - these types of people also spent decades supporting Stalin and pol pot.

@GammaLaser Well when you talk about "international human rights lawyers", there is the NGO crowd (Amnesty International, HRW) and then there are the ICJ representatives.

@nathanwei I mean people like Adrian Fulford, who was previously a judge at The Hague.

Is there any particular reason this keeps dropping? I for one would not rule that Israel is committing genocide but I don't think an objective observer would say any recent events have remotely come close to refuting that they are

@CainanKeyles because it was always a ridiculous allegation and at this point even south Africa has admitted they can't back it with evidence (they asked for "time to gather more", which was denied).

@CainanKeyles in the public „genocide“ often gets thrown together with all kind of other warcrimes. It is possible that warcrimes were committed, but genocide has specific definition that is clearly not met.

@Philip3773733 yeah I'd be really surprised if 1) no war crimes were found, and somewhat surprised if 2) this was deemed genocide

@CainanKeyles Because the Gaza death rate keeps dropping: https://data.techforpalestine.org/

@Shai are you saying if the death rate drops in a genocide it stops being a genocide?

I don't know what the ICJ will decide, but a drop in death rate after so much harm has already been done doesn't seem like a good reason. Specially when the international response likely played a role in Israel reducing their murderous campaign.

The main factor that will matter to the court in this case is whether Israel has the clear intent of eliminating the targeted group (Dolus Specialis).

The fact that the numbers are dropping as Israel has gained more control could provide evidence to Israel's case that its intent is to eliminate Hamas (unprotected group) and not the people of Gaza. In previous cases of genocides, as the army gained more control, the numbers have increased (which is what you would expect if the intent is there).

Gaza death rates have dropped drastically since the start of the war and I expect they'll keep going down as Hamas becomes less capable.

You can tell even activists are starting to have doubts of Israel's supposed genocidal intent as they keep trying to inflate the death count.

can't determine they're committing genocide when they're not lol.

I admire your optimism

It would really undermine the legitimacy of the court if it does happen.

kolod balevav penimah, nefesh yehudi homiyah!