In the current South African lawsuit against Israel.
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What's the actual case for a YES resolution? Overturning the 15-2 precedent in Croatia vs Serbia? This market is overvalued. GPT says 10%.
@nathanwei @Shump If the ICJ rules that Israeli forces committed "acts of genocide" but that Israel did not commit genocide, it resolves as NO, correct?
Since this market is only till the end of 2027, it doesn't capture what I'm more interested in. I want to know how "the actual case will resolve" rather than "when". I have created a new market that can go till 2050: https://manifold.markets/Samaritan/will-the-international-court-of-jus-lhsqhuONtl
@Samaritan Pretty sure that this market closes at the end of 2027, but resolves when there is a verdict.
@Samaritan In general on Manifold you should not assume a market's scheduled close date has anything to do with its resolution criteria. The description clearly says this market resolves based on the current ICJ case. The description doesn't say anything about the case needing to wrap up before 2027. It's likely mods would even step in if a requirement for it to wrap up before 2027 was now announced, since it hasn't been part of the criteria before now.
UN Report Accuses Israel of Systematically Using Sexual and Gender-Based Violence as a Weapon of War Against Palestinians. Some key take aways as summarized by Drop Site News:
Weaponized Sexual Violence and State-Sanctioned Brutality
Direct Orders and Climate of Impunity
Destruction of Reproductive Healthcare as a Tool of Genocide
Murder of Women and Girls
Intentional Strategy to Undermine Palestinian Survival
Sources:
- https://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2025/03/more-human-can-bear-israels-systematic-use-sexual-reproductive-and-other
- https://x.com/DropSiteNews/status/1900196535318515769
Will Israel attempting to starve all Palestinians in Gaza (again) effect the ICJ ruling? context: https://x.com/DropSiteNews/status/1896227890498277473
It's crazy how Israel violated the ceasefire over 270 times and is still pretending they are in the right here.
Also here's a video about the recent embarrassing proposal from Trump that Israel says they back: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PPiZLXI1sWs
It's funny how bad hasbara (Israel's propaganda) is that they let this happen: https://x.com/jeremyscahill/status/1896227020784427274
@nathanwei In the free beacon it says that humanitarian aid to humanitarian zones is suppose to happen with the next offensive that it reports will start in 4 to 6 weeks. That means 4 to 6 weeks with no aid. Assuming the free beacon's sources are reliable.
The blocking of all aid is happening now and is even backed up by Egypt where a lot of the aid is coming from. Here's some sources for you:
The times of israel - https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-halts-aid-into-gaza-over-hamas-refusal-to-extend-first-phase-of-truce/
Al-jazeera - https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/3/2/israel-reneges-on-ceasefire-deal-warns-hamas-of-consequences
Also just take a look at Israeli politician's own tweets if you want more sources.
If mass starvation wont play a role in the ruling in the genocide convention, maybe we're not reading the same thing. Even your own source takes it a step further and end swith the following quotes:
"Removing the people of Gaza is the only solution that can really change the reality and create a better life for everybody," Tal said. "So everything we are doing in Gaza should serve that goal."
Here's a refresher of article 2 of the Convention which defines genocide as:
... any of the following acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group, as such killing members of the group, causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group, deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part, imposing measures intended to prevent births within the group, or forcibly transferring children of the group to another group.
@nathanwei solid points, but this is where technicality becomes the issue for me. Assuming in your Nazi starving jews in Poland example, those who could flee to a humanitarian zone in Russia, but heard stories of people being killed on the way by the Nazis (and seen it), and even the humanitarian zone also having been bombed previously by the Nazis, might choose to stay. If they starve, because they're being starved by the Nazis, would that not count as genocide? Sincerely asking because this is the technicality I have a problem with. It just sounds like Genocide with extra steps and ethnic cleansing on the side.
You're wrong about the craziest of Israel's government only talking about kicking Palestinians off their ancestral homeland, they have and continue to call for the extermination of Palestinians, just less often. For example, recently the Speaker of Israel’s Parliament (same party as the prime minister, not an ultra-right wing party) said the following:
“Who is innocent in Gaza? Civilians went out and slaughtered people in cold blood … We need to separate the children and women and kill the adults in Gaza, we are being too considerate,” Vaturi said.
“We will soon turn Jenin into Gaza," he said, adding that the Palestinian captives released under the Gaza ceasefire deal should be sent there so they can be "eliminated" by Israeli forces. “Erase Jenin. Don’t start looking for the terrorists ... if there's a terrorist in a house, take it out."
https://x.com/DropSiteNews/status/1894051556502188436
Israel is getting good again at not saying the bad parts out loud though but they still hint at it often. Here's their prime minister saying that starving the population is just the start and there will be more collective punishment: https://x.com/DropSiteNews/status/1896096959393644695
Cutting off water supplies is being discussed now: https://x.com/DropSiteNews/status/1896278704097267888
@BrunoParga Are you implying starving a population is forgivable to try and get the hostages back? This market is about genocide. Save the hasbara whataboutism to other more relevant threads
@Samaritan no, I'm literally asking what you think would happen if Hamas surrendered and disbanded. You're reading wayyyyy more into I asked than what I did ask. This is a value-free question about what actions Israel would take. Whether that action is legal, moral or whatever is not the point of what I'm asking you.
No it definitely wouldn't count in the Nazi example, even if some Jews were killed on the way, if 2 million Jews evacuated and the Nazis killed a few Jewish communists with some collateral damage on the way out (say killing 10 communists and 100 civilians near them), and starved the ones who remained, because their goal was to remove all Jews from Germany and to kill the Jewish communists which they felt were a threat to them (but NOT to destroy the Jewish people) then it would DEFINITELY NOT have been genocide. Things like this happened to Jews all throughout the world for hundreds of years and actually something like this happened to the Germans after the war, .5-2 MILLION Germans died in the expulsions from the East. Lemkin called the Holocaust a crime without a name. The Holocaust was new. Look millions of people have moved around in Gaza and there are a handful of targeted assassinations of Hamas members on the way, perhaps with some collateral damage, but obviously the intended target is Hamas. Israel is clearly not targeting civilians when they are moving. There is no special intent to destroy the Gazan population!
Vaturi is part of Likud but you should think of him as effectively part of Otzma Yehudit. He is a nutty backbencher with no power and the craziest MK in Likud out of 32. It's true that people like him make it possible that Israel will be found in violation of the convention by failing to prevent incitement to genocide. I hope that Israel is not found in violation of the convention, and I think that given what happened on October 7 and that Hamas wants to do it again and again and that 3/4 of Palestinians supported it, Israel should be given lots and lots of leeway here. That's my personal opinion, I know you disagree. Wanting to turn Jenin into Gaza still doesn't seem genocidal. Perhaps Vaturi wants to ethnically cleanse Palestinians from Gaza and the West Bank. Does he want to destroy them? Probably not.
Again cutting off water doesn't help make the case. The point is that Israel has no special intent to destroy the Palestinian people. Again even the craziest people want to force them all to leave by using starvation, water, etc as a weapon of war. I don't think this is quite fair to say that this is the government's policy, as Netanyahu is more moderate than them. But even this is not genocide. Yes even if they shoot a few Hamas terrorists who are evacuating and there is some collateral damage. The fact remains that the humanitarian zones are still much safer than the other places (and this will become especially true once aid is removed from the other places), and nothing is life is risk free.
One really strange thing about the genocide allegation is the behavior of Egypt. So Egypt thinks that it's a genocide but is unwilling to accept refugees fleeing from this genocide? Why doesn't Egypt open the border with Gaza then? Why doesn't it led Palestinians flee rather than to be killed?
@BrunoParga I'm actually not so sure how relevant this is. Let's go full Godwin's law. Say the Nazis had won WWII, and Hitler then pinned the Holocaust or at least the Final Solution on Heydrich and Himmler, and stopped killing Jews and shut down all the gas chambers. This wouldn't absolve the Nazis of genocide charges. Who knows if the Nazis would have done this perhaps they would have continued with the Holocaust with Stalinist deportations, but probably they would have at least shut down Auschwitz if they had won the war.
I definitely don't believe that Israel is committing genocide. There's no special intent to destroy the Palestinian people. There are no gas chambers. They allow outside food in, and they encourage people to flee to other countries. Again to use the Godwin's law analogy, the Nazis encouraged Jews to flee to other countries at first, until 1941, the year that the Holocaust started. But I think that dolus specialis can in fact "turn off" when a war ends. When you're fighting a war you might want to destroy a group but when the war ends you might suddenly stop wanting to. This sort of thing can happen. Likewise, many genocides do in fact happen during wars. There are big political changes after the end of a huge war. That's why Churchill lost to Atlee in a landslide and so on.
I'm very pro-Israel and I think it's kind of distasteful to compare Israel to Nazi Germany but I think it's an effective way to argue. Imagine that the Nazis actually acted like Israel did. You can also imagine if Polish Jews did October 7 to Germany with the support of 3/4 of the Polish Jewish population, but Germany had a 20% minority of Jews with more political freedoms and a higher standard of living than Polish Jews, and the worst thing that happened to German Jews was a few arrests for social media posts for supporting the terrorists. And Germany's response was to invade Poland and to do now what Israel is doing to Gaza. So, by the worst estimates 60K deaths in 15 months from a huge military campaign. Allowing food in, encouraging people to flee, some more right-wing people in the government talking about kicking all Polish Jews to Russia. Later calling for only letting aid to some zones, and taking seriously the possibility that most Polish Jews could go to Russia. Always encouraging Polish Jews to flee. Who the fuck would call that genocide? This would obviously not be genocide.
I think that the treatment of Israeli Arabs is good evidence that Israel is not committing genocide. It's not dispositive sure, genocide is about whole or in part. During WWII Romania was fine to its Jews but did genocidal things toward Jews in Ukraine like in Odesa. But even there you had pressure from the Nazis and so on. The Nazis killed their own Jews. They spared a small number of Jewish men married to Aryan women. So anyway yes, the treatment of Israeli Arabs is not decisive evidence that by itself settles the case, but it's good Bayesian evidence that Israel is not committing genocide. What really settles the case is a lack of special intent from Israel to destroy the Palestinian people. There is no such special intent.
@Samaritan "@BrunoParga Are you implying starving a population is forgivable to try and get the hostages back? This market is about genocide. Save the hasbara whataboutism to other more relevant threads"
You're moving the goalposts! We are not talking about whether Israel's actions are "forgivable" or whether it's ethical or a war crime or whatever. We are talking about if it's genocide. It's definitely not genocide to do what you claim that Israel is doing, to "[starve] a population ... to try and get the hostages back". There is no special intent to destroy the people here, just a special intent to get back the hostages.
As for the actual truth value of your claim, I don't think that Israel is actually using starvation as a weapon of war. There is no famine in Gaza, despite a bunch of mass hysteria that there might be a famine. We have a market on the famine deaths and most of the mass is on the smallest opinion, below 250. But anyway this is irrelevant. Even if you are right, which again I don't think you are, and Israel is using starvation as a weapon of war to get the hostages back, this is NOT genocide.
@nathanwei oh, I'm not even comparing to Nazi Germany or anything. That literally never crosses my mind, tbqh.
I am literally honestly just curious what @Samaritan thinks.
@BrunoParga If I’m going to steel man him I would say that yes Israel would continue to fight against PIJ and other groups, and wind down the war but not end it completely, and would still try to reoccupy Gaza to prevent a PIJ takeover. I would also say that this doesn’t prove that it’s not genocide because intent can change.
I actually am not sure this is true, I think if Hamas surrendered then Israel would perhaps be OK to just withdraw. If PIJ takes over the strip they can be deterred. It’s an interesting question. An interesting hypothetical.
@BrunoParga I think the better hypothetical is not just where Hamas surrenders but Hamas, PIJ, etc all surrender.
@nathanwei To claim only a handful hamas members were being targeted with some collateral is ignoring a lot of evidence and news saying the contrary. There is video footage of kids being killed and then bombing of those who come to help. There's videos of snipers taking out a child and mom waving a white flag walking in the humanitarian corridor. Another of a child after the recent ceasefire then shooting at the man that tried to retrieve the body, and much more: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/10/09/opinion/gaza-doctor-interviews.html
My take is Israel wants Palestinians gone, either through death or ethnic cleansing, whatever they can get away with. Israeli politicians clearly state it, no tin foil hat needed.
From most discussing the topic you seemed the most civil, but out of everything you've written I don't understand how you could state
> "Perhaps Vaturi wants to ethnically cleanse Palestinians from Gaza and the West Bank. Does he want to destroy them? Probably not."
After reading Vaturi say "We need to separate the children and women and kill the adults in Gaza".
Just separating the children and ignoring everything else is clearly stated in article 2: "forcibly transferring children of the group"
I doesn't make sense to downplay all these politicians as fringe when so many of them have said such things and specially with the speaker of their government, Vaturi, who is literally in the PM's party. You can't hand wave him into another party. And the PM's party has a coalition to stay in power with an even more openly genocidal far right party. It stops being a minority. The majority of Israel's population saw the footage of all homes being destroyed and wanted there to be more bombing. I understand if people being treated horribly and are occupied/blockaded develop hate, I don't want them to but I understand how they could. But then when Israelis living in luxury are filled with more hate, it's less excusable.
> humanitarian zones are still much safer than the other places
I agree, but I could understand if many choose not to go because they are not getting reliable information and have seen first hand the war crimes Israel commits in those areas. This somewhat happened already and Israelis were claiming anyone still in the north is Hamas to justify mass killing. Also could you please avoid dismissive statements like "nothing is life is risk free"?
You keep using the word "few", but numbers currently range at over 60,000 dead. Vast majority are civilian. Even Blinken said Hamas' numbers haven't changed because of new recruits triggered by Israel's atrocities.
Now with the Egypt thing, this came off as bad faith because it's the pro-israel talking point. It takes seconds of critical thinking to show how it doesn't makes much sense. Why not give Gaza to Egypt and make it their responsibility? Egypt literally is asking for it and Hamas said they'd step down if an Arab body took over. no need for Israel to make it a land grab. If you want more reasons why Egypt isn't taking them you can find them here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PPiZLXI1sWs
btw starvation as a weapon of war can check a few boxes of article 2. but I don't think I'll be able to persuade you of that.
Ignore Bruno, they seems to be trying to derail the conversation, not sure why. He could have started a new comment thread or dm'ed me directly rather than steering this conversation away from genocide.
@Samaritan my pronouns are he/him ;)
Speaking as a former diplomat, I believe this market is nearly entirely pointless: Nathan is right that the question before the Court is not "is it genocide?" but rather "is Israel in breach of its obligations under the Convention?“
The proper resolution has almost certainly been NO right off the bat, but this is Manifold, so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
But yeah, you can keep repeating your propaganda talking points. Have a good one!
@Samaritan also, it's most likely not the interpretation you intend, but your username does refer to a group with an incredibly long history of mutual bad blood between them and the Jews. It's not for nothing that Jesus made the character in the parable a member of the out-groupiest of the out-groups of his age.
@Samaritan Of course there were some mistakes and some bad apples in the humanitarian corridors. But no special intent to destroy the civilians there.
Vaturi is nuts but he is a Likud backbencher. He’s the MTG of the Likud party. Forcible transfer of children is about transfer to another group so you misunderstand that part of the convention.
Israel has not claimed everyone in the north is Hamas. Of course there are civilians there. In fact Israel was being accused of trying to kick all the civilians out of the north.
I don’t think poverty is an excuse for developing hate. I also agree that more than a few Gazans have died. But way fewer have died in humanitarian zones is my understanding. I would guess less than 10K total.
I’d love for Egypt to annex Gaza. And for Egypt to be given tons of money to do it. I think it’s fair to ask why if you think it’s literally a genocide, why can’t they flee to Egypt and why isn’t Egypt being pressured to accept them. I’m pro Israel so saying that this is a pro Israel talking point is a non sequitir. Anyway I would rather bring Egypt to Gaza than Gaza to Egypt. The trouble is they don’t want it.
@BrunoParga Samaritan is definitely not a typical anti Israel propagandist, one he is very civil and two he seems to have actual humanitarian concerns and doesn’t seem to be a hardcore anti Zionist who wants to get rid of Israel. Liked for the distinction between perpetrating genocide and convention breaches.
Samaritan has made some bad arguments. But they are far from the worst I’ve seen.
@Samaritan To be clear being pro Israel doesn’t mean you want to ethnically cleanse Gaza, Netanyahu himself has said we want to deradicalize Gaza and not resettle it. I’d be happy for Egypt to annex it. Sure I wouldn’t mind if all the Gazans got up and moved to Egypt, that would solve the issue. Of course it’s generally not great to forcibly evict millions of people if you can help it, even with moral considerations aside it’s quite difficult and messy.
@BrunoParga Samaritans today are Israeli citizens. There are two groups. One in Holon with only Israeli passports and one in Kiryat Luza in Area B of the West Bank with both Israeli and Palestinian citizenship.
@BrunoParga if you ever want to learn about Samaritans: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tRrFrx8-wEg
Also most often people know the word samaritan from the phrase "good samaritan", without even knowing the real origin.
@nathanwei I think we fundamentally disagree on the bad apples comment. Hate is unfortunately ingrained into the culture.
Some Israeli officials did claim all those that remain in the north are Hamas before the ceasefire where many could return to their homes. None would claim that now. Well that's not true, Vaturi did claim there are no innocent people in Gaza.
I didn't say occupation, blockade, and harassment are an excuse to developing hate, I said I understand why they would develop hate.
Egypt and other arab countries have openly made statements many times tot ake over Gaza, and Egypt has been even more vocal about it lately. Also the video I linked earlier clearly explains Egypts case if you're genuinely interested in learning more about their decisions.
@Samaritan Claiming that there are no inncoent people in Gaza, because many of the civilians participated in October 7, is not the same as having a special intent to destroy them all. Who claimed that all of those that remained in the north before the ceasefire were Hamas? Yes it would be great to have Egypt take over Gaza. Even if you are right that Vaturi has a special intent to kill every adult male in Gaza, that doesn't mean Israel is committing genocide. In general Vaturi makes many crazy statements but they have not been translated into Israeli policy.
@Samaritan "To claim only a handful hamas members were being targeted with some collateral is ignoring a lot of evidence and news saying the contrary."
I was referring to "in the humanitarian corridor", where there are indeed only a few reports. The vast majority of such reports are not in the humanitarian corridor.
Claiming there are no innocents does not mean that he wants to kill them all. Marwan Barghouti is far from innocent and in an Israeli prison, but Israel does not want to destroy him.
Yes having Egypt take over Gaza would be great. That's my preferred solution. Gaza becomes part of Egypt. Like before 1967, though nominally it had an "All-Palestine Government" back then.
The hate goes way back. 1929 riots are a good place to start: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xd7p3tHTGlU
@Samaritan I see no specific intent by Israel to destroy the Palestinian people. Netanyahu has explicitly that he does not want to resettle Gaza, that he wants to deradicalize Gaza so that Gazans live in peace, and that he supports voluntary emigration from Gaza to Egypt and other places. Netanyahu has never even come out in favor of ethnically cleansing the Gazans and sending them to Egypt. Certainly not genocide. When Netanyahu was standing next to Trump in the press conference, he said Gazans should be allowed to leave if they want to, just voluntary emigration. Obviously Netanyahu understands that Trump is not serious about the US taking over Gaza and kicking the Palestinians and that it's just a typical Trump negotiating tactic of saying something extreme to start out.
Perhaps you can argue that Israel violated the Genocide Convention by failing to reign in various bad actors. But to say that Israel itself is committing a genocide? No. Imagine Hitler talking about the Jews the way Netanyahu talks about the Palestinians. Come on.
I don't mean to minimize the bad actors in Israel. I just mean to say they are not setting the policy. You can quote loony people from the Republican Party too. MTG is our Vaturi. It doesn't mean that is what the US government policy is. Vaturi isn't even a minister. Smotrich is Finance Minister and Ben-Gvir was Interior Minister. No responsibility for the war. Yoav Gallant referred to HAMAS as human animals. The Druze guy in the IDF said that he would give Gazan civilians "hell" for supporting Hamas, but again he did not say that he wanted to destroy the civilians. Again think of a Nazi saying we will give Jews hell for supporting commies, by mean which at most we deport them to Russia and bomb apartment blocks where Jewish communists live, and killing 60K Jews in an entire year and a half, in response to Jewish communists massacring German civilians indiscriminately in an October 7 style attack. Not genocide. Even the pogroms in Imperial Russia were not genocide. Lemkin talked about a crime without a name.
All you do is quote the most radical people and statements all day, and you totally fail to consider the overwhelming amount of contrary evidence. This is called cherry picking. You fail to consider that Israel evacuating civilian areas to reduce civilian casualties, Israel calling off some strikes because it would cause lots of collateral damage, Netanyahu explicitly saying that he does not want to destroy the Palestinian people, something like ~100/day dying in the war given the huge power gap (even Srebenica was 250/month for the whole month). This is just obviously not genocide.
@nathanwei you can't make this stuff up (check attached image). Israel literal army couldn't fight Hamas and beat them for over a year. How are the Palestinian people supposed to do it when they are starving under a blockade, unarmed, and homeless?
This is literally the defense minister. Let me know if that's also a "loony" person and doesn't represent Israeli policy.
@Samaritan sounds like you think the Palestinian people ought to be liberated from Hamas - who do you think should do it, and how?
@Samaritan I think the argument you’re making is not good. Definitely NATO could not defeat the USSR and other communist regimes in a land war and yet the Russians and Eastern Euros themselves removed it.
I do think Israel can defeat Hamas in any case.
@Samaritan “We will act with tons of force and establish humanitarian zones for civilians” is not genocide. Dude even fucking Hiroshima, Nagasaki, Tokyo, Dresden, Hamburg etc which were indiscriminate are not genocide. Here they are setting up HUMANITARIAN ZONES with the explicit intent of reducing civilian casualties!
@Samaritan Israel's policy of EVACUATING PEOPLE FROM COMBAT ZONES and INTO HUMANITARIAN ZONES is proof that Israel has no special intent to destroy the Palestinian people. They are not committing genocide.
@nathanwei how are you able to skip over what was quoted in the image i shared and specially the last sentences?
"return the hostages and kick out Hamas, and new options will open up for you—including relocation to other parts of the world for those who choose. The alternative is destruction and total devastation."
Noticed he says "Residents of Gaza", he's not talking to Hamas.
What's stranger is how hostile he's being in a performative video that most Palestinians in Gaza can't even see because of Israel cutting electricity.
@Samaritan He is telling the civilians that people will be EVACUATED FROM COMBAT ZONES.
I bet there is Wifi in the tents and smartphones but ok.
@Samaritan What do you think "evacuation from combat zones will soon resume" means? It means that Israel does NOT have a special intent - dolus specialis - to destroy the population of Gaza. On the contrary it has a special intent NOT to. Evacuations of civilians with combat zones is inconsistent with genocidal intent!
Saying that there will be total destruction and total devastation if the war continues isn’t a threat t commit genocide. America could have warned the Japanese, and Hiroshima was certainly total destruction and total devastation but that doesn’t mean he genocides them.
@Samaritan Dude he literally says the war will stop if Hamas is removed. There is a specific intent to REMOVE HAMAS. There is NO specific intent to destroy the Gazan population. There is NO dolus specialis. Israel is not committing genocide.
@Samaritan the sad, sorry state of South Africa's terrible lawsuit: https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/israel/diplomacy-defense/artc-israel-secures-6-month-delay-in-hague-court-proceedings
Do you think this is due to incompetence (as a former diplomat, I can 1000% believe that is the case), malice against the (((sued party))) or just plain awareness that they don't have a case?
@BrunoParga Hey buddy, sorry to tell you this, "former diplomat" doesn't get you as much credibility as you seem to think. From multiple lawyer friends, this type or stuff happens all the time with delays for whatever reason since there are so many procedural things to cover.
Here are other countries that have joined that case btw: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/6/6/which-countries-have-joined-south-africas-case-against-israel-at-the-icj
That being said, The delay does effect this market since it's going to expiry before the ICJ case will reach it's conclusion. You can always bet in the market that has a longer window too: https://manifold.markets/Samaritan/will-the-international-court-of-jus-lhsqhuONtl
@Samaritan yes, some people are incompetent all the fucking time.
The number of countries that have joined is an argument against it being genocide - you'd imagine someone would have some actual evidence, more so than if it was just a lone wolf country.
@Samaritan and let's face it, your arguments in this thread cast some serious doubt on your ability to evaluate anyone's credibility. But it's okay, we are all wrong here on this website sometimes. I mean, it has been made clear to you that the question you asked is not the one the Court is even gonna decide on. This market was flawed from the very start, and you willfully and knowingly reproduced that flaw when creating your own market.
@BrunoParga Probably just some procedural crap, I am still low because the case was always weak to start out with. Again where is the "dolus specialis"? There is no specific intent to commit genocide. Netanyahu has said over and over that they want to disarm Gaza, don't want to resettle it, they want o rebuild and radicalize it, allow voluntary migration, etc. The head of the ICJ, Julia S, is very pro-Israel and she is in charge of the procedural things. It's possible the war will just be over by January 2026. So "we removed Hamas and the killing stopped" would be a pretty strong rebuttal from the Israeli side. I guess in principle there could have been genocidal intent that went away when the war stopped. But again the best evidence of genocidal intent is Yoav Gallant calling Hamas "human animals", the discussions of Amalek (people also compared Germans to Amalek, that doesn't mean there's a call for genocide), etc. Really no evidence at all. The Israeli far-right talks about ethnic cleansing and sending all the Gazans to Egypt, not genocide.
The number of countries that have joined is an argument against it being genocide
As a former diplomat you're probably able to look up past ICJ cases to see other countries have joined (intervened with Articles 62 and 63) and those cases still resolved in their favour. The evidence has been discussed plenty in these comments but if you want to ignore them, that's fine, former diplomats can do whatever it is former diplomats do.
This market was flawed from the very start, and you willfully and knowingly reproduced that flaw when creating your own market.
If your nit here is it should have used phrasing like "constitute genocide", that's true. But it's obvious from reading the title that's the intent. I reused the same phrasing as not to confuse potential betters on the new market since some other useful markets have been created to measuring different things around the case. For example, there is a great one Nathan created worded to measure other aspects of the case, breaching the genocide convention: https://manifold.markets/nathanwei/will-icj-find-israel-in-breach-of-t
I didn't want to confuse betters. I wanted it to be clear that it's just longer version of this market which 271 users have bet on, unless all of them are inferior to you since you're a former diplomat. Do I think it's a big deal either way? not really.
Maybe try engaging in conversation at least like @nathanwei . He's made solid points, and even though we disagree, at least I know exactly where. For example, in what he stated most recently, I would point to different interpretations of what has been said by Israeli officials. I would then points to other quotes, like recent quotes from Katz, which you can looking up since you are a very capable former diplomat.
Katz said IDF will send aid to Gaza https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/katz-says-israel-will-renew-aid-to-gaza-via-civilian-firms-to-prevent-hamas-theft/ ... see also https://www.timesofisrael.com/idf-fully-captures-gazas-morag-corridor-cutting-off-rafah-from-khan-younis/ the final moment where it is possi le to remove Hamas without restarting the war that will lead to more evacuations, not a death threat. Israel continues to propose hostage deals. The goal of the war is to remove Hamas and recover the hostages. There is no specific intent - dolus specialis - to destroy the Palestinian people. I know I sound like a broken record but there is just obviously not genocidal intent.
Many countries have joined the lawsuit, I think the lesson there is that many people especially leftists and third-wordlists are anti-Israel and just reflexively oppose Israel, which we already knew. I do not think that it's strong evidence either way. They would do that whether the case was strong or weak. Whether the claim is that Israel flattened the Earth, or whether the claim is that at least one Israeli soldier committed at least one crime. It gives no Bayesian information.
RE https://manifold.markets/Shump/will-the-icj-determine-that-israel#dlvhri9aouu
I do not trust senior Hamas officials. They lie all of the fucking time. You take what a senior Hamas official says at face value? I think this is why @BrunoParga lol'd at you.