When will the hostilities in Gaza end?
46
684
2.7k
2025
1%
May 2024 or earlier
4%
Jun 2024 or earlier
16%
Jul 2024 or earlier
19%
Aug 2024 or earlier
23%
Sep 2024 or earlier
24%
Oct 2024 or earlier
27%
Nov 2024 or earlier
30%
Dec 2024 or earlier
37%
Jan 2025 or earlier
63%
Feb 2025 or earlier
67%
Mar 2025 or earlier

The market will be resolved when one of the following conditions is fulfilled:

  1. Israel announces the conclusion of the military operation in Gaza.

  2. A long-term ceasefire is established between Israel and Hamas or other Gazan authorities.

  3. Hostilities end in some other way.

As soon as one of these criteria is fulfilled and at least a few days pass without the renewal of the fighting, I'll resolve all the answers that are still open to YES.

Until that happens, I'll be resolving each answer to NO as soon as the period that it refers to ends. If a ceasefire is established at the end of the month, I'll delay the resolution a bit to see whether it stays in effect.

I will not bet on this market.

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I've also added a couple of options for later dates.

bought Ṁ50 Jul 2024 or earlier YES

“Jul 2024 or earlier” means it must end by July 1st or July 31st?

@nsokolsky In July or earlier, so before August 1st.

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