
When will the hostilities in Gaza end?
233
7kṀ93k2028
14%
July 2025 or earlier
20%
August 2025 or earlier
20%
September 2025 or earlier
26%
October 2025 or earlier
29%
November 2025 or earlier
31%
December 2025 or earlier
32%
January 2026 or earlier
29%
February 2026 or earlier
33%
March 2026 or earlier
35%
April 2026 or earlier
37%
May 2026 or earlier
42%
June 2026 or earlier
51%
July 2026 or earlier
74%
August 2026 or earlier
78%
September 2026 or earlier
The market will resolve positively as soon as one of the following conditions is fulfilled:
A ceasefire is established and holds for 90 days.
Israel announces the conclusion of the military operation and doesn’t renew the offensive within the next 90 days.
Hamas ceases to exist and is not replaced within the next 90 days by a similar organization that would continue active resistance in Gaza.
The state of Israel ceases to exist.
In all cases the target date is the start of the respective period, but the resolution date (except in option 4) is 90 days later.
I do not bet on my own questions.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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