Will Israel win the 2023 Israel–Hamas war?
40
242
1k
2025
57%
chance

This market will resolve YES if and when the English Wikipedia's page on the 2023 Israel–Hamas war (or the nearest equivalent if that page no longer exists) lists in its infobox "Result: Israeli victory" (or equivalent), and I am satisfied that this is not part of an edit war.

It will also resolve YES if the result describes the victor as some coalition of which Israel is a part, or describes the outcome in terms of the defeated side being Hamas or some coalition of which Hamas is a part.

Any other "result" after the war is no longer described by Wikipedia as "ongoing" will cause the market to resolve NO, including hedged statements like "Partial Israeli victory" or "Israeli victory with territorial losses".

Note specifically that if there is a frozen conflict that causes Wikipedia to update the infobox from "ongoing" to "inconclusive" or similar, this would be a NO resolution.

Resolution only depends on the first, non-dotpoint statement in the "result" section of the infobox. If hedging/concessions follow the intitial statement as dotpoints, or if they appear in the body of the article, this is not relevant to resolution. If the "result" comprises only dotpoints, the market will resolve NO.

The closing date for this market will be extended as needed until the market can resolve.

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bought Ṁ10 of NO

As the last Gaza war described in Wikipedia as "Victory claimed by both sides", even after kills ratio of 10k to 100 people.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Gaza_War

@yard nitpick, 2300 fatalities there

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