[Metaculus] Will at least 500,000 Palestinians be displaced from Gaza before December 31st, 2025?
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Will at least 500,000 Palestinians be displaced from Gaza before December 31st, 2025?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.


Resolution criteria

The question will resolve Yes based on credible reports that 500,000 or more Palestinians have left Gaza before December 31st 2025.

Reports of displacement within Gaza - for instance, from the north to the south - are not sufficient to resolve this question.

Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.


Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.

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What counts as "displacement"? What if people willingly leave?

@AlexCao Description seems pretty clear.

will resolve Yes based on credible reports that 500,000 or more Palestinians have left Gaza before December 31st 2025

@jskf ok, I was just confused since displacement typically means forced expulsion

Where are they gonna go? No way any of the surrounding countries will take this many. It's probably more likely that 500,000 of them die than 500,000 get taken in by a neighboring country.

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