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Hard Forkasts
Future Pandemics
Will there be another pandemic by the year 2030?
39%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
Public Health
67
Ṁ1.2K
Will a pandemic caused by a novel pathogen occur before 2032 and result in the deaths of more than 20 million people?
19%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
Pandemic
#
Public Health
39
Ṁ1.8K
In what year will the next pandemic occur that is as bad or worse than COVID?
2048
#
Effective Altruism
#
Carson's Important Markets
31
Ṁ810
Will the WHO declare another pandemic before 2030?
35%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
World
#
Pandemic
29
Ṁ480
Will a new pandemic caused by a currently unknown virus be declared by the World Health Organization by 2030?
42%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
Science
#
COVID
#
COVID origins
24
Ṁ470
Will a global pandemic of a novel infectious disease, similar to COVID-19, occur by 2030?
29%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
Science
#
COVID
#
Public Health
21
Ṁ410
Will there be another global pandemic before 2030?
32%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
20
Ṁ340
Will the next pandemic originate in a laboratory?
32%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
COVID
#
COVID origins
17
Ṁ330
Will there be another pandemic before 2025?
12%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
Health
28
Ṁ380
Will there be a non-natural origin theory for the next pandemic?
76%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
Pandemic
#
Science
#
US Politics
17
Ṁ390
Will a pandemic wipe out humanity by 2100?
5%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
Existential Risk
#
Pandemic
#
Public Health
13
Ṁ270
Will there be a pandemic which most people agree is worse than COVID by the year 2050?
50%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
Science
#
COVID
#
Biology
13
Ṁ270
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