Will the next pandemic originate in a laboratory?
26
1kṀ9872050
25%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Consensus of reliable sources will be used to check if an outbreak qualifies as a pandemic.
Resolves YES or NO based on the resolution of a market that is similar in principle to Isaac's lab leak market. Once a pandemic is declared, I will decide which market this question should be a mirror of.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?
47% chance
Scott Alexander is planning a COVID origins bet. If there is a debate, will judges conclude COVID came from a lab leak?
19% chance
Will we ever know whether COVID-19 came from a lab?
59% chance
Will we ever have any idea (see description) whether COVID-19 came from a lab?
86% chance
Will there be a non-natural origin theory for the next pandemic?
66% chance
(When) will we know if COVID came from a laboratory?
2038
Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory? (2050 Poll)
49% chance
Did/will H5N1 come from a laboratory?
15% chance
When will the next pandemic occur?
2038
Will another global-scale novel pathogen emerge before the end of 2025?
7% chance