Will the next pandemic originate in a laboratory?
20
597
2050
28%
chance

Consensus of reliable sources will be used to check if an outbreak qualifies as a pandemic.

Resolves YES or NO based on the resolution of a market that is similar in principle to Isaac's lab leak market. Once a pandemic is declared, I will decide which market this question should be a mirror of.

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The fact that the media is already buzzing about "disease x" would convince me that 'yes' it will

@Akzzz123, “next pandemic?” Has the potential to be controversial because it may not be agreed whether an endemic is a pandemic. So you’re layering a meta definition over another meta definition, “lab leak,” … also does your market include lab workers being infected in the wild during sample collection and then transferring that infection to other lab workers as, “lab leak?” Because Issac’s market doesn’t. I would expect any market adjudication by AK to have the widest possible definition in favor of lab leak so that it can resolve YES, e.g. it is intended to resolve YES regardless of the outcome, mirroring your many comments.

@PatrickDelaney consensus of reliable sources will be used to determine whether it's a pandemic or not.

Regarding the definition of lab leak, I've said that I'll go with a market that's closest in principle to Isaac's market. If anyone wants to create such a conditional market I could delegate the resolution to mirror that market.

Why does your account keep disappearing and reappearing? For example, it was active on January 18th and appeared to be deleted shortly after. It was active again on January 24th to create this question and appears to be deleted now.

Offering a good-faith explanation of this would be helpful- it looks very suspicious.

@Clark I've deleted my account here but it doesn't stop me from making trades, comments or markets. Deleting your account only makes your profile page show the account is deleted.

@Akzzz123 Thanks- I didn't know that was possible!

@Clark Me neither