100 cases cumulative or concurrent? If we slowly get up to finding 100 people who've ever had it but we don't have a lot of people with it at the same time, that's not really an outbreak, certainly not a large-scale one.

@WilliamGunn the resolution criteria link to a data source, which appears to be cumulative

I edited the title to include "100+ human confirmed H5N1 cases"

@jacksonpolack thanks! Back when I first asked the question, 100 seemed pretty large and unlikely, yet here we are.

Link in description 404s, should probably be https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fbird-flu%2Fphp%2Favian-flu-summary%2Findex.html

which lists 53 human cases

https://bsky.app/profile/scottehensley.bsky.social/post/3lb36uy5a7k25

https://www.kron4.com/news/bay-area/east-bay-child-tests-positive-for-bird-flu/

What is the base-rate of such events?

@nic_kup To be more accurate I am looking for something like: in years where there were >10 cases of birdflu what is the likelihood of >100 cases?

We're at 9 cases so far.