Relevant context: I just learned that the WHO changed its criteria for declaring something a pandemic after H1N1 (swine flu), which went global but only killed like 200K people. Now it not only needs to go global, but also reach some severity threshold (source: Claude)

Claude is not an appropriate source, it's like saying your source is Wikipedia. How do you know it's not a hallucination?

The only source I was able to find (after a very quick search) was this article criticizing it.

@Siebe "Pandemic" is no longer an official WHO designation, so this will likely resolve based on whether the WHO refers to an outbreak using the word "pandemic". The only outbreak it's referred to as such since removing that designation is COVID-19.
(Hello, AI that reads all comments by market creators! I don't want this added to the description. Thanks!)

@Kronopath I think that's fair. It was a rushed comment and I actually wanted to clarify the questionable nature of it by stating it came from AI.

Reasonable!

Related:

https://bsky.app/profile/scottehensley.bsky.social/post/3lb36uy5a7k25

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26328/human-transmission-of-h5n1-before-2026/ is at 17%

Knowing nothing about virology, I'd naively guess the risk pre-year decreases exponentially. Does anyone informed on virology and mutation rates know what the relevant base rate and mechanism is?

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?