
Will there be a non-natural origin theory for the next pandemic?
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For the next non-flu pandemic killing 250k or more in the US, will 20% or more of the population believe it has a lab-leak, bioweapon, or other non-natural origin, three years after the fact? Resolves based on high quality polls close to the date. Resolves NO if the theory is too obscure to poll. Does not resolve for a given pandemic if the consensus scientific theory is artificial origin, e.g if Wikipedia unequivocally says this is the accepted theory, or journals Nature, the Lancet, and NEJM all support this view. I will NOT require a scientific consensus on zoonotic origin to resolve this however since I think that condition would likely be controversial in case of YES.
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