EA@UT Forecasting

Round 1

For next 10 minutes, look through and make a prediction on each of these six markets. You can discuss with others in your group, but create your own individual Manifold bets. This increases something called liquidity, which makes the market more accurate.

I recommend spending 10-50 M on each bet, depending on how confident you are. You are encouarged to do research! Try to use the tools and strategies we discussed. And leave a comment with your reasoning! Each of these markets closes in less than 2 weeks, so we'll know if you were right and who made the most profit by our next Monday meeting! These questions are unlisted, so the only people who can see the comments and bets are UT@EA members.

Round 2

For this next round, spend 10 minutes with a new group on one or two of the below markets. After choosing a market to focus on, research and use the tools we discussed to create a forecast and a bet. Be prepared to share the reasoning behind the forecast and bet with everyone! These questions are public and all also closing in less than two weeks, so we'll know how you did by the next meeting.

Round 3

For the rest of the meeting, look through the next set of questions. These questions are all longer term. You're also welcome to look through the rest of the site to try to find markets that interest you. Diversify your bets to make sure that no single bet can destroy your portfolio. Try to find markets that are mispriced and bring them to the right probability. Ask yourself what you know that the market doesn't—what's your edge?

Explore further:

Free online prediction community platforms: Metaculus, Manifold

Track predictions and calibrate: Fatebook, Quantified Intuitions

Videos and podcasts:

• Alex Lawsen’s Intro to Forecasting playlist on Youtube

• Philip Tetlock’s two episodes on the 80,000 hours podcast

Books: 

• Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction by Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner

• The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail by Nate Silver

• Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners, ed. J. Scott Armstrong

Papers and blogs:

• “How feasible is long-range forecasting?” by Luke Muehlhauser, OpenPhil

• “How much to bet,” Gwern Branwell (the kelly criterion), Manifolio (manifold KC tool)

• “Superforecasting the premises in ‘Is power-seeking AI an existential risk?’” by Joe Carlsmith

Go even further:

• Good Judgement Open

• ACX Forecasting Contest