Resolution criteria for what counts as an attempt adapted from this market.
For the purposes of this market the test doesn't have to be successful or even conclusive - a scrub is fine as long as it's clear that SpaceX was trying to do an orbital flight test.
I'll resolve YES if an official SpaceX social media channel puts up a livestream entitled "Starship Flight Test" or similar, which shows a live feed of a Starship–Super Heavy full stack vehicle and a countdown, for a flight trajectory that is intended to be orbital or near-orbital, NO if there is clearly no such livestream by market close, and N/A if it is ambiguous whether this has happened at market close.
The relevant timezone is the local time at the launch site.
See also:
/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-887fb60c0e98
/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-890e74e896aa
1,000
3.00@jim Want to set up a few at https://manifold.markets/Mqrius/will-the-next-full-stack-launch-of-690f4cc6f4cb ;)
@jim I was teasing. I might arbitrage at
https://manifold.markets/chrisjbillington/by-which-dates-in-2023-will-the-sec
too late in posting this
@jacksonpolack Starship isn't launching Friday. SpaceX pushed their livestream start time on X to Saturday.
EDIT: it was false, it was a matter of time difference
https://twitter.com/NASASpaceflight/status/1725217491205423255
@IonMarqvardsen They have to be intending to launch. If it scrubs and turns into a wet dress rehearsal as a result (like it did on Apr 17th for IFT-1), that's still a YES as long as they were intending to launch when the livestream went live.