Thanks for all the great submissions! We've hit the 100-answer limit so no more answers can be added, and in light of this event I've updated the resolution criteria to clarify some edge cases:
If the person of the year is a single person, this market resolves to their name. If the POTY is a single person whose name was not submitted, this market resolves to "Other".
If the person of the year is two people, this market resolves 50% to each if both have been submitted. If only one of the two was submitted, this market will resolve 100% to that submitted answer.
If a concept or group (such as "The Guardians") is the POTY but the exact wording of the concept/group has not been submitted, this market resolves to the single most predictive concept/group submission according to my judgement, if any submissions qualify (Such as "The Journalists" for 'The Guardians").
If no concept/group submissions are sufficiently predictive in my judgement, I will instead look for submitted names of individuals who are part of the concept/group and are highlighted by Time (such as individual journalists on the 2018 covers for "The Guardians").
If no submissions qualify, this market will resolve to "Other" unless the title of POTY is shared with an individual who was submitted, in which case this market resolves to that individual.
This market's close date will be adjusted as necessary to close before the person of the year is expected to be announced.
Resolution Examples:
In 2020 I would have resolved 50% to Joe Biden and 50% to Kamala Harris if they were both submitted, or 100% to Joe Biden if Kamala Harris was not submitted. I would not resolve to "Joe Biden and Kamala Harris" in any scenario, and would only resolve to "Other" if neither was submitted as an option.
In 2022 I would have resolved 50% to Zelenskyy and 50% to "The Spirit of Ukraine" if they were both submitted, or 100% to Zelenskyy if "The Spirit of Ukraine" was not submitted. If neither answer was submitted but "The Country of Ukraine" was, I would have resolved this market 100% to "The Country of Ukraine."
I would only resolve to "Other" if neither was submitted as an option, and no similar concepts/groups or individuals representative of "The Spirit of Ukraine" were submitted.
"Other" always resolves either to 0% or 100%. Please keep this in mind for your wagers.
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On this graph, you can spot the precise moment I talked to you about the problem of induction 😂 ❤
@NicoDelon You were saying my opinions on TIME POTY could be discarded because my graph was going straight down (this was early December). The I helpfully reminded you that just because it has gone down thus far, does not mean it will keep going down (so you should not discard my opinion about bets in the future just because my bets in the past went bad). And lo! It then stopped going down, and, rather, began to climb up!
@jim I don’t think I ever suggested it could not go up; only that I could not infer that you were right from your record (your record was no evidence that one should trust you and I had no other evidence), which is exactly what someone who understands the problem of induction should say.
I had several nightmares about this market last night.
- The first was that TIME said they had gotten too many complaints about ChatGPT not being on the shortlist so instead of announcing a winner, they released an "extended shortlist" of 30+ entries including ChatGPT but also things like "The Island of Grenada" for "its important role this year as a tax shelter [???] and the part it played in the invention of Grenadine." (I'm not doing justice to their spiel, they made it sound like a real contender).
- In the second it was won by "Sam Altman, ChatGPT, and Advances in Information Technology" where I lost a bunch of mana trying to news trade without knowing which answer "Information Technology" was going to round off to, and forgetting that the winners were only going to resolve to 33% each.
@MichaelWheatley haha I also dreamed about this market! 😅
In my dream, Time picked Sam Altman as Person of the Year. But they mentioned OpenAI (*not* ChatGPT?!) in a subheadline and @Joshua very dishonorably treated that as them picking both Altman and OpenAI[*], resolving this market 50/50 while https://manifold.markets/WilliamHoward/will-sam-altman-be-times-person-of resolved YES, causing me to lose big on both (I took a bunch of the other side of Mira's bets that it would be shared between Altman and something).
Grenada though! 😂 😂 😂
[*] apparently my subconscious is still mad about https://manifold.markets/Joshua/conditional-on-manifold-being-menti even though I only lost M10 there lol
My worst fear was that they'd say "Sam Altman and the AI revolution" with ChatGPT on the cover but not named. Then I'd have people arguing for every possible 50/50 split.
@CertaintyOfVictory bets only count towards the leagues season of the calendar month they were placed in. That's why I'm at the bottom of my league, I bought all my NO shares in November.