Will the US government shut down on November 17, 2023?
EA@UT Forecasting•US Politics•Politics•Metaculus•United States•118th Congress•Global Macro•Gov shutdown
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resolved Nov 17
Resolved
NO

The current continuing resolution (CR) to keep the federal government ends on November 17. If a new CR is not pasted by November 17th then the government shuts down.

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predicted YES

I heard Biden is going to veto

3 traders bought Ṁ5 YES
predicted NO

@BlakeD I respect the hustle.

bought Ṁ1 YES at 0.2%
predicted YES

@BlakeD a veto just flew over my house

Looks like this might be resolved tonight…

predicted NO

I've made a very cursed two-dimensional market based on this question and the starship launch license market, enjoy the arbitrage!

So the question resolves YES if no new CR passes by or on November 17. That means by midnight on the 17th. If a CR passes that extends funding then question resolves NO.

It says “a new CR must be pasted BY Nov. 17.” Does this mean 11:59 of Nov. 16th is the deadline then?

predicted YES

@AnandShah The existing CR funds the gov until whichever of 3 events happens first, the last of which is November 17. So my read is finding would dry up then yes.

what time on nov 17? is 10am fair?

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