Will Donald Trump ever serve time in prison?
237
1.8K
2.2K
2060
40%
chance

Resolves yes if and when Donald Trump goes to prison.

Get Ṁ1,000 play money
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Does house arrest count?

@DaisyWelham If the Mar-A-Lago is a prison, then I’m a flying pig

bought Ṁ1,000 of NO

He will drag it out until he gets elected President and then die in office.

when would this market get resolved? are people expecting here to sit on this position till 2060? or just trade the fluctuations?

predicts NO

@AlfonsoRodriguez well, if he dies I guess this would resolve as NO, no matter how much earlier than 2060 it is…

bought Ṁ200 of YES

note that the price of this market should be inflated, since it will take a long time to resolve NO if he never goes to prison (it says below that it resolves on death)

predicts YES

@MatthewLichti well, those markets don't have any tether to reality. This one does, in that you profit if it resolves YES, but if it resolves NO you likely won't profit for decades

predicts YES

@Conflux Why do you think this market is more tethered to reality? There's almost no money in this market. Even betting $1 causes a large price shift. No one is betting $1 based on calculations of what that $1 will be worth in 5 to 10 years. I'll miss out on $0.25 worth of interest I would have gotten if I invested in Mana treasury bonds.

predicts YES

@MatthewLichti some people care about their mana! This one is more tethered to reality because there's a chance it pays out. The AI market will either resolve NO in 2100 or YES if everyone's dead - neither of which matters

predicts YES

@Conflux I don't think anyone cares enough about such tiny amounts of Mana to bet strategically. There are other markets where you can bet enough for the amount you win or lose to have meaning, but this is not one of them.

predicts YES

@MatthewLichti well, I disagree - I think people do try to "win the game of Manifold" by increasing their amount of mana

predicts YES

@Conflux Why would they even bother betting on really illiquid markets? It's a lot of time investment for almost no mana.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

Sometimes I just want the numbers to be correct, though.

predicts YES

@Joshua Yes. I throw in 20 mana into an illiquid market because I think the current market probability is wrong. I don't actually care about winning 20 mana if I'm right because that's $0.20.

Does jail or house arrest count?

predicts NO

@MartinRandall no, it has to be prison, as stated in the title

predicts NO

There's a lot of these markets now so it's important we get into the gritty details for arbitrage: This is only when serving a sentence, right? Doesn't count if he visits someone else in prison?

bought Ṁ10 of YES
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bought Ṁ50 of NO
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