Will the upcoming biopic movie “Napoleon” have a rotten tomatoes score higher than 90%?
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resolved Nov 25
Resolved
NO

Director Ridley Scott has a massive new biopic on Napoleon in theaters Noember 22 2023. Will it receive reviews higher than 90% on Rotten Tomatoes?

Movie Trailer Here : https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=RL8lQ0sr_Bk&vl=en

Ridley Scott has directed movies such as

  • Gladiator

  • Black Hawk Down

  • The Martian

  • American Gangster

Resolution Criteria:

  • Will resolve as "YES" if on November 23rd 2023 at 11:59 PM EST Rotten Tomatoes tomatometer (critics score) reflects a score >90%

  • Will resolve as "NO" if above criteria is not met at specified date

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The historical percentage of films with more than 90% in the rotten tomatoes score, for both the director and the leading actor, is less than 12%:

-Ridley Scott (11.4%): The Martian (2015) with 91%, The Duellists (1997) with 93% and Alien (1979) with 98%

-Joaquin Phoenix (11.5%): Her de ella (2013) with 94%, C'Mon C'Mon (2021) with 92%, Parenthood (1989) with 92% and Hotel Rwanda (2004) with 91%

Even the last film in which both participated (Gladiator - 2000) obtained only 80%.

Although there is a lot of expectation for this film, there are also criticisms related to the historical accuracy of the biography, which could impact the final score.

Your resolution date might be a bit too early to get even all of the “top” critics’ reviews included in the RT score. For example, Oppenheimer came out on July 21st, but RT doesn’t have Richard Brody’s (New Yorker) review dated until five days after that.

Either extending the resolution date out to the 30th (given that it is opening on a holiday weekend, especially, possibly delaying some physical pubs of reviews) or waiting until it’s at least “certified fresh” (which seems all but guaranteed for a movie of this caliber) seems like the prudent thing to do here imo.

Rotten Tomatoes has two scores, is resolution based solely on tomatometer (critics) score?

predicted YES

@heero

Great point. To reduce confusion the resolution criteria is based solely on tomatometer (critics) score.

@DTaeed Fantastic, thanks for answering!

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