In a year, will Peter Wildeford believe $100 donation to Deworm the World has a larger expected net benefit than a donation to Against Malaria Foundation?
Nov 15

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predicts YES

I am nudging regularly. Dunno at what point we give up.

I'm going to go ahead and bet yes significantly. Peter believed this at market creation, and no new information I can find has shown he should update to the contrary position.

Further, the 2023 Givewell CEA stated that the most effective program of the AMF had a multiplier against cash transfers of 26.6, whereas the most effective deworming program had a multiplier of 34.5.

Oddly, DtW is not on the top charities list though, so I'm not totally sure.



Obviously AMF is going to have more NET benefit.