![](/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Ffirebasestorage.googleapis.com%2Fv0%2Fb%2Fmantic-markets.appspot.com%2Fo%2Fdream%252Ff5fwXY3BDg.png%3Falt%3Dmedia%26token%3De3678ee3-24b0-4946-ac78-9d1188c962a0&w=3840&q=75)
In a year, will Peter Wildeford believe $100 donation to Deworm the World has a larger expected net benefit than a donation to Against Malaria Foundation?
Basic
11
Ṁ1.6kNov 15
76%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:
I'm going to go ahead and bet yes significantly. Peter believed this at market creation, and no new information I can find has shown he should update to the contrary position.
Further, the 2023 Givewell CEA stated that the most effective program of the AMF had a multiplier against cash transfers of 26.6, whereas the most effective deworming program had a multiplier of 34.5.
Oddly, DtW is not on the top charities list though, so I'm not totally sure.
DtW:
![](https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FkQBs4rha7P.png?alt=media&token=2293d540-cd21-4af9-9399-8b26de2a1a29)
AMF:
![](https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F-RO07NGhrc.png?alt=media&token=17660229-6761-4ac3-8d67-aeb8c75a23b1)
Related questions
Related questions
Will any of the GiveWell top recommended charities be Malaria-related at the end of 2030?
58% chance
Will the Against Malaria Foundation reach $1 billion raised by the end of 2026?
49% chance
Will GiveWell fund Eave tubes to control malaria by 1st January 2027?
41% chance
Will GiveWell fund Attractive toxic sugar baits for malaria control by 1st January 2027?
36% chance
Will GiveWell get a new $100M (inflation-adjusted) cumulative donor before 2025?
65% chance
Will GiveWell get a new institutional funder (or the Gates Foundation) which gives $100M in a single financial year before 2030?
46% chance
Will a MrBeast publish a YouTube video in which he does malaria prevention philanthropy before the end of 2025?
41% chance
Will a MrBeast publish a YouTube video in which he does malaria prevention philanthropy before the end of 2024?
24% chance
Will Givewell recommend a charity distributing the New Malaria Vaccine "R21 Matrix M"?
39% chance
Will a GiveWell report that a non-Openphil donor has given $100M in (Jan 22 $) in one financial year up to financial year 2030?
62% chance