In a year, will Peter Wildeford believe $100 donation to Deworm the World has a larger expected net benefit than a donation to Against Malaria Foundation? | Manifold

In a year, will Peter Wildeford believe $100 donation to Deworm the World has a larger expected net benefit than a donation to Against Malaria Foundation?

EA@UT Forecasting•Change My Mind

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predicts YES

I am nudging regularly. Dunno at what point we give up.

bought Ṁ0 of YES

I'm going to go ahead and bet yes significantly. Peter believed this at market creation, and no new information I can find has shown he should update to the contrary position.

Further, the 2023 Givewell CEA stated that the most effective program of the AMF had a multiplier against cash transfers of 26.6, whereas the most effective deworming program had a multiplier of 34.5.

Oddly, DtW is not on the top charities list though, so I'm not totally sure.

DtW:

AMF:

bought Ṁ20 of NO

Obviously AMF is going to have more NET benefit.

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