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AI Policy
Will Biden sign an executive order primarily focused on AI in 2023?
YES
#
AI
#
AI Safety
138
Ṁ2.2K
Will the AI Safety Summit host in UK lead to the creation of an International Institution for the AI Governance?
NO
#
AI
#
Science
#
Technology
25
Ṁ470
Will the US or China enact a moratorium of any kind on the training of large language models by the end 2024?
21%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
AI
#
China
30
Ṁ610
Will the US, UK or EU write any law aimed at limiting a specific AI capability before 2024?
27%
chance
#
New Year's Resolutions 2024
45
Ṁ870
Will the EU AI Act enter into force by end of 2024?
75%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
European Union
#
Politics
#
AI Safety
61
Ṁ1K
Will the class-action lawsuit by artists against several AI art generators be successful?
19%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
AI
#
AI Copyright Law
#
New Year's Resolutions 2025
70
Ṁ6.2K
Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria)
34%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
AI
#
US Politics
#
Politics
2688
Ṁ6.9K
The US, UK or EU put limits on training of AI models (eg $ spent) before 2024?
15%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
17
Ṁ350
Will the US government commit to legal restrictions on large AI training runs by January 1st, 2025?
14%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
AI
75
Ṁ1.3K
Will the US government enact legislation before 2026 that substantially slows US AI progress?
29%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
AI
#
AI Safety
60
Ṁ1K
Will the US require purchasers of large numbers of GPUs to report their usage before 2026?
29%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
Metaculus
26
Ṁ430
Will the US enact export controls for some generative AI software before 2026?
76%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
Metaculus
#
AI
16
Ṁ310
Will the US or California require licenses to train large AI models before 2026?
20%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
Metaculus
#
AI
18
Ṁ370
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