AI Policy

2.2k

Will Biden sign an executive order primarily focused on AI in 2023?YES

470

Will the AI Safety Summit host in UK lead to the creation of an International Institution for the AI Governance?NO

1k

Will the US or China enact a moratorium of any kind on the training of large language models by the end 2024?NO

870

Will the US, UK or EU write any law aimed at limiting a specific AI capability before 2024?NO

1k

Will the EU AI Act enter into force by end of 2024?YES

6.2k

Will the class-action lawsuit by artists against several AI art generators be successful?20% chance

6.9k

Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria)NO

1k

The US, UK or EU put limits on training of AI models (eg $ spent) before 2024?NO

1.3k

Will the US government commit to legal restrictions on large AI training runs by January 1st, 2025?NO

1k

Will the US government enact legislation before 2026 that substantially slows US AI progress?15% chance

1k

Will the US require purchasers of large numbers of GPUs to report their usage before 2026?18% chance

1k

Will the US enact export controls for some generative AI software before 2026?80% chance

1k

Will the US or California require licenses to train large AI models before 2026?21% chance

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