AI Policy

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Will Biden sign an executive order primarily focused on AI in 2023?YES
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Will the AI Safety Summit host in UK lead to the creation of an International Institution for the AI Governance?NO
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Will the US or China enact a moratorium of any kind on the training of large language models by the end 2024?19% chance
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Will the US, UK or EU write any law aimed at limiting a specific AI capability before 2024?NO
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Will the EU AI Act enter into force by end of 2024?YES
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Will the class-action lawsuit by artists against several AI art generators be successful?20% chance
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Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria)NO
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The US, UK or EU put limits on training of AI models (eg $ spent) before 2024?15% chance
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Will the US government commit to legal restrictions on large AI training runs by January 1st, 2025?5% chance
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Will the US government enact legislation before 2026 that substantially slows US AI progress?18% chance
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Will the US require purchasers of large numbers of GPUs to report their usage before 2026?28% chance
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Will the US enact export controls for some generative AI software before 2026?77% chance
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Will the US or California require licenses to train large AI models before 2026?24% chance
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