Will the EU AI Act enter into force by end of 2024?
Dec 31

This will resolve YES if the Artificial Intelligence Act enters into force by end of 2024 (Brussels time). Otherwise this will resolve NO. The AI Act will go into force 20 days after it's publication.

The Artificial Intelligence Act is a regulation proposed by the European Commission that aims to establish a common regulatory framework for artificial intelligence across all sectors, excluding military. It classifies AI applications based on their risk level and regulates them accordingly, with low-risk applications facing the least amount of regulation. Medium to high-risk AI applications would require conformity assessment before being put on the market, while some applications such as remote biometric recognition and social credit scoring would face a ban or authorisation requirements. The AI Act is sometimes compared to the GDPR in its scope and global ambition.

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@hominidan I won't resolve this market until the law is published, but yes it looks like a pretty sure thing to me. I don't like to bet in my own markets but someone should probably correct these two markets to almost zero because they didn't happen:



bought Ṁ300 YES

The final step (plenary vote) scheduled to March https://www.dataguidance.com/news/eu-european-parliament-ai-act-plenary-vote-moved-march
EP committees expressed support in a 71:8 vote

Copilot says:

Provisional Agreement: After three days of “marathon” talks, on 9 December 2023, the Council and Parliament reached a provisional agreement on the AI Act23.

Harmonized Rules: The AI Act aims to harmonize rules on AI systems, ensuring they are safe and respect fundamental rights and EU values23.

While the exact date of its final passage is not specified, the provisional agreement indicates substantial progress, and further steps will follow to formalize its adoption.

I may have to change my bet.

predicts NO

I used Bing chat and it estimated that it would pass in 2025. I know that's a naive and stupid way to estimate, but I'll go with it :-)

predicts YES

Here's two more specific markets about how the legislative process will continue:

Just curious, for how many views did you pay to boost this?

predicts YES

@xyz I’ve paid M$500 each on this and the market until end of 2023. They’ve both been running about a day now, here’s the analytics for this one:

Funds left            Ṁ65 (13 redeems)

Total Impressions            520 (199 unique)

Impressions since campaign start              420

Redeems             87


I’ve glanced at it a couple times throughout the day too and I feel like the number of paid redeems and people who bet has been about 4:1 proportional throughout. So my assumption is that there’s still some way to diminishing returns.

Kinda sad nobody has traded on this

predicts YES

@ElliotDavies The good news is that the new boosting system seems to work beautifully here!

predicts YES

Good job to admins!

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