Will the US enact export controls for some generative AI software before 2026? | Manifold

Will the US enact export controls for some generative AI software before 2026?

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From https://metaculus.com/questions/17102/us-export-ctrls-for-generative-ai-before-2026/

As of May 2023, US law does have export controls on the sale of software services that include powerful generative AI. As such, OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and Microsoft can sell LLM-assisted document writing, image generation, video generation, etc. to enterprises worldwide (up to more general export controls not focused on AI.)

In Oct 2022, the US implemented export controls, that, roughly speaking, bans export of semiconductors that involve US in their manufacturing chain to China.

As the capabilities of generative AI systems grow, and as enterprise customers learn more how to extract certain types of knowledge (e.g. how to create Deep Fakes or create armies of online bots), one way US policymakers might address risks would be to apply exports control to software that are similar to the export controls for hardware used for training AI.

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