ChatBot Arena | Battle of the LLMs

Premium

Who will have the best LLM at the end of 2024 (as decided by ChatBot Arena)?

69%

OpenAI

16%

Google

6%

xAI

6%

Anthropic

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Plus

Will anyone other than OpenAI rank #1 on Chatbot Arena in 2024? (for >1 week)YES

Plus

Will any open-source model rank higher than GPT-4 on ChatBot Arena in 2024? (according to ELO Rating)YES

Plus

Who will have the best LLM at the end of 2024 (as decided by ChatBot Arena Ranks)?

76%

OpenAI

5%

Anthropic

12%

Google

0.1%

Mistral

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Plus

Which companies will outrank or tie with OpenAI on ChatBot Arena in 2024? (>= week)

27%

Other

14%

Apple

3%

Mistral

Resolved

YES

Anthropic

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Plus

Who will have the best LLM at the end of 2025 (as decided by ChatBot Arena)?

38%

OpenAI

13%

Anthropic

0.5%

Mistral

31%

Google

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Plus

Which companies will achieve a higher ELO rating than OpenAI on ChatBot Arena in 2024? ( >= week)

6%

Mistral

18%

Other

Resolved

YES

Anthropic

Resolved

YES

Google

Plus

Will any open-source model rank in the top 3 on Chatbot Arena at the end of 2024?15% chance

Plus

Will any open-source model rank in the top 3 on Chatbot Arena at any point in 2024? (resolves based on ELO rating)7% chance

Basic

Will Anthropic achieve an ELO rating higher than OpenAI’s best model on ChatBot Arena in 2024? (for >= 1 week)YES

Plus

Which companies will outrank OpenAI on ChatBot Arena in 2024? (>= week)

31%

Anthropic

4%

Mistral

6%

Other

Resolved

YES

Google

Plus

Will any open-source model rank in the top 3 on Chatbot Arena at the end of 2024?15% chance

Plus

Which companies will rank in top 10 on Chatbot Arena at the end of 2024?

98%

OpenAI

97%

Anthropic

92%

Google

80%

xAI

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