Who will have the best LLM at the end of 2025 (as decided by ChatBot Arena)?
Standard
39
Ṁ2115
2025
36%
OpenAI
14%
Anthropic
0.4%
Mistral
23%
Google
6%
xAI
7%
Meta
13%
Other

I was browsing Twitter, and I saw a post by Karpathy positively talking about ChatBot Arena, which is a platform for ranking LLMs based on human ratings. I wonder which company will be #1 with the highest ELO rating at the end of 2025.

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bought Ṁ1 Other YES

You should have allowed us to add an answer.

@Sss19971997 will add answers later but for now let’s keep it at other and only add companies that actually have a realistic chance

@Soli Meta? Alibaba? X? Yi?

@Sss19971997 The other is at 3% right now and covers these options and more. It would make sense to separate if other was a bit higher 😅

@Soli very true

bought Ṁ20 Google YES

@Soli FWIW, I rarely bet on "Other" because I'm afraid that my Mana will be broken out of the Other into new answers that I don't believe in.

I still believe your reasoning is correct, and that it makes sense that you don't need to add new answers. But I think th straightforward numerical breakdown of the number is not representative of the actual probabilities, at least for me.

bought Ṁ25 Google YES

@Sss19971997 @HenriThunberg i added more options now