Who will have the best LLM at the end of 2024 (as decided by ChatBot Arena Ranks)?
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Plus
68
Ṁ5828
Dec 31
76%
OpenAI
5%
Anthropic
12%
Google
0.1%
Mistral
8%
Other

This question is the same as this one but resolves based on the rank decided by ChatBot Arena. If two models from different companies rank #1, then the question resolves 50% each. Right now (Mar 16, 2024) both OpenAI and Anthropic hold rank #1.

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Right now both OpenAI and Anthropic hold rank #1.

Where is this? I don't understand this question vs the other one or vs the leaderboard linked in the other one.

@pdw the leaderboard can be found here under the tab leaderboard. Last year, the leaderboard had no ties, and all LLMs were ranked based on an ELO score. This was changed last week, which made it possible for two companies to rank #1 even when one of them has a higher ELO rating.

So if at the end of the year two companies are ranked #1, then this market will resolve 50% to each. The other market would resolve to the company with the higher ELO rating.

Does this clear up your question?

@Soli Got it. I was confused by "two companies to rank #1" and was looking for a separate company ranking. You mean two models to rank #1 from different companies. I got it now. Thank you.

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