Will any open-source model rank in the top 3 on Chatbot Arena at any point in 2024? (resolves based on ELO rating)
Plus
57
Ṁ18kDec 30
7%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
I was browing Twitter and I saw a post by Karpathy postively talking about ChatBot Arena which is a platform for ranking LLMs based on human ratings. As expected OpenAI is holding positions 1, 2 and 3. I wonder if any opensource model will take any of these positions at any point in 2024 and keep it for a full week
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
@Soli I assume by your comment on a similar market that here you're resolving based on elo rather than "Rank." Can you clarify?
command r plus is already surpassing gpt4 on some benchmarks: https://txt.cohere.com/command-r-plus-microsoft-azure/
Related questions
Related questions
Will any open-source model rank in the top 3 on Chatbot Arena at the end of 2024?
15% chance
Which companies will outrank OpenAI on ChatBot Arena in 2024? (>= week)
Highest Chatbot Arena Elo rating of an open-source model during 2024
Which companies will outrank or tie with OpenAI on ChatBot Arena in 2024? (>= week)
Which companies will achieve a higher ELO rating than OpenAI on ChatBot Arena in 2024? ( >= week)
Until what date will an OpenAI model hold the top position in the Chatbot Arena?
What will the highest elo of an open-source model on chatbot arena be at the end of 2024?
Which companies will achieve a higher ELO rating than OpenAI on ChatBot Arena in 2025? ( >= week)
Which companies will rank in top 10 on Chatbot Arena at the end of 2024?
Will OpenAI launch a significantly better model for ChatGPT paying users in 2024? (>= 100 points diff on ChatBot Arena)
21% chance