Will any open-source model rank in the top 3 on Chatbot Arena at the end of 2024?
Plus
22
Ṁ1026Dec 30
15%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
I was browing Twitter and I saw a post by Karpathy postively talking about ChatBot Arena which is a platform for ranking LLMs based on human ratings. As expected OpenAI is holding positions 1, 2 and 3. I wonder if any opensource model will take any of these positions at the end of 2024. I will resolve as yes if this is the case ar the end of 2024
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
@HanchiSun good observation I already have 5 markets on ChatBot Arena and would hate to spam everyone on here. Check them out here and I will create another one where duplicates are not allowed but I just need to find a good definition of what constitues a duplicate.
https://manifold.markets/dashboard/chatbot-arena-battle-of-the-llms?r=U29saQ
Related questions
Related questions
What will the highest elo of an open-source model on chatbot arena be at the end of 2024?
Which companies will rank in top 10 on Chatbot Arena at the end of 2024?
Which companies will outrank OpenAI on ChatBot Arena in 2024? (>= week)
Which companies will outrank or tie with OpenAI on ChatBot Arena in 2024? (>= week)
Will any open-source model rank in the top 3 on Chatbot Arena at any point in 2024? (resolves based on ELO rating)
4% chance
Will OpenAI launch a significantly better model for ChatGPT paying users in 2024? (>= 100 points diff on ChatBot Arena)
21% chance
Highest Chatbot Arena Elo rating of an open-source model during 2024
Which companies will achieve a higher ELO rating than OpenAI on ChatBot Arena in 2024? ( >= week)
Which organization will have the top model on Chatbot Arena at the end of 2024?
Will an open model take the 5th spot on chatbot arena before EOY?
78% chance