Will any open-source model rank in the top 3 on Chatbot Arena at the end of 2024?

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resolved Dec 31

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I was browing Twitter and I saw a post by Karpathy postively talking about ChatBot Arena which is a platform for ranking LLMs based on human ratings. As expected OpenAI is holding positions 1, 2 and 3. I wonder if any opensource model will take any of these positions at the end of 2024. I will resolve as yes if this is the case ar the end of 2024

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Why would u count gpt4 as 3 different models?

If openai release a new variant every month, seems possible that they occupy all top 10 positions

Would u be kind enough to start a new market where duplicate models count as one?

@HanchiSun good observation I already have 5 markets on ChatBot Arena and would hate to spam everyone on here. Check them out here and I will create another one where duplicates are not allowed but I just need to find a good definition of what constitues a duplicate.

https://manifold.markets/dashboard/chatbot-arena-battle-of-the-llms?r=U29saQ