Taiwan

This dashboard is an (at first) experimental attempt to curate the many Taiwan markets, and especially reduce the overwhelming focus on invasion scenarios.

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Will Lai Ching-te be elected president of Taiwan?YES

#International Elections

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Will more than 50 members of congress visit Taiwan in 2023?NO

#118th Congress

#New Year's Resolutions 2024

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Will Taiwan/ROC lose another 'diplomatic ally' in 2023?NO

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Will Taiwan remain independent of China through 2049?62% chance

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If China invades Taiwan, will they succeed?49% chance

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Will a US cabinet level official visit Taiwan during 2023?NO

#New Year's Resolutions 2024

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If China invades Taiwan, will the United States intervene directly?75% chance

#China Taiwan potential conflict

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Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2033?20% chance

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Will Ko Wen-je come second in Taiwan's 2024 presidential election?NO

#Elections: World

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Will the Vatican State stop its diplomatic relationship with Taiwan and establish one with China before 2027?24% chance

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Will Petr Pavel (Czech president) visit Taiwan during his first term20% chance

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By 2037, will China and Taiwan sign a non-aggression agreement?16% chance

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Which US officials or senior political figures will attend the inauguration of the next Taiwanese President in 2024?

7%

Speaker of the House

2%

Senate Majority Leader

3%

Senate Minority Leader

5%

Vice-President

See 6 more answers

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Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2024?8% chance