Taiwan

This dashboard is an (at first) experimental attempt to curate the many Taiwan markets, and especially reduce the overwhelming focus on invasion scenarios.

1.1k

Will Lai Ching-te be elected president of Taiwan?YES

650

Will more than 50 members of congress visit Taiwan in 2023?NO

230

Will Taiwan/ROC lose another 'diplomatic ally' in 2023?NO

1k

Will Taiwan remain independent of China through 2049?52% chance

1.9k

If China invades Taiwan, will they succeed?58% chance

510

Will a US cabinet level official visit Taiwan during 2023?NO

1.8k

If China invades Taiwan, will the United States intervene directly?50% chance

1k

Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2033?19% chance

370

Will Ko Wen-je come second in Taiwan's 2024 presidential election?NO

1k

Will the Vatican State stop its diplomatic relationship with Taiwan and establish one with China before 2027?30% chance

150

Will Petr Pavel (Czech president) visit Taiwan during his first term18% chance

130

By 2037, will China and Taiwan sign a non-aggression agreement?17% chance

270

Which US officials or senior political figures will attend the inauguration of the next Taiwanese President in 2024?

7%

Speaker of the House

2%

Senate Majority Leader

3%

Senate Minority Leader

5%

Vice-President

See 6 more answers

1k

Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2024?NO

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules