[This is Casey's high-confidence prediction from the 12/22/23 episode of Hard Fork]

Will Instagram Threads overtake X in daily active users by the end of 2024? Market will resolve to yes if both companies report daily usage metrics that show that Threads daily usage is higher than X daily usage. (In the absence of audited public disclosures by the companies, credible third-party estimates, such as Comscore or Quantcast measurements, will also be considered valid).