[This is Casey's low-confidence prediction from the 12/22/23 episode of Hard Fork]
This market will resolve to yes if the Apple Vision Pro is a success at reviving interest in mixed reality and the metaverse by December 31, 2024 using some resolution criteria I'm not sure about. (This is Kevin writing the prediction, ask Casey how he'll resolve it!)
1,000
3.00Apple slashes Vision Pro production, might cancel 2025 model in response to plummeting demand
https://www.techspot.com/news/102727-apple-have-slashed-vision-pro-production-canceled-next.html
Ready to see the market start to correct here. The AVP has been out for 2 weeks (2/2/24) and today is the return deadline. The Verge and other outlets have begun reporting those tech enthusiasts that purchased have begun returning the device (see TikTok) hardly something we see with a device that is not a flop. Users cite discomfort and lack of use cases for the $3.5K device.
The Vision Pro Review: I'm running out of reasons to wear Apple's futuristic headset after a week
WSJ I’m an Apple Early Adopter, and the Vision Pro Isn’t Right for Me—Yet
Yahoo Apple Vision Pro users begin returning headset, blaming headaches and limited uses
Coverage has been largely underwhelming from mainstream media, most not able to get over the device's appearance and discomfort. It has not found a niche or target market. Even amongst the tech enthusiasts, the general consensus has been: this is an amazing preview for the future of AR/Vr , but this is a V1 device with little practical use today. See this long blog post from Tim Urban (Wait But Why) that comes to the conclusion that the device is very cool but yet very underwhelming. https://waitbutwhy.com/2024/02/vision-pro.html
It's that "its cool But" and overall underwhelming connotation that defines a flop and this V1 version has not succeeded in reviving interest — if anything we can look at Meta Quest or Ray Bans as more responsible for reviving mass consumer interest. This is a niche device for Apple fans.
@SimranRahman Agreed! I think the Vision Pro 2 or 3 will be big, but the Vision Pro we have now just isn’t a product that appeals broadly to consumers. The only reason I’m not betting it down more is that the resolution criteria are somewhat ambiguous.
@SimranRahman Yeah, I have to say that I find your comment here fairly inaccurate (and it's prompting me to bet yes even though I find the clarity on the resolution criteria here quite lacking).
Regarding the returns I think you're just wrong: https://9to5mac.com/2024/02/28/vision-pro-demand/
Your comment just seems very overconfident to me. The amount of returns matters! That some people on TikTok talk about returning it is not “hardly something we see with a device that is not a flop“. People return iPhones all the time. The iPhone is not a flop.
Also: “most not able to get over the device's appearance and discomfort“ out of media reviewers?
Most? Are you sure? I would bet a lot of Mana just against that statement, this also clearly seems wrong. This seems like motivated language to me & not truth-seeking. (I have had no prior position in this market and don't have any Apple stock, nor do I own a Vision Pro. I'm just confused by your comment.)
I gave multiple points of reference and sources for my claims, your response is that my statements "seem wrong". If you want to dig into semantics go ahead, but if you have actual conviction in your own claims bet Mana. That's what the platform is for.
@SimranRahman Where's your source for the statements:
“most not able to get over the device's appearance and discomfort. It has not found a niche or target market.“?
I don't have to bet on this market to “show my actual conviction“ as I have no idea how Casey would resolve this, none of us know. Making arguments & pointing out (possible) falsehoods in other statements is fine. I'll stick to my assessment of “this just seems wrong“, as I laid out my reasoning.
(I'd happily bet “no“ on a market regarding the claims “>50% of reviewers weren't able to get over the device's appearance and discomfort“ and “it has not found a niche or target market.“)