[This is Casey's medium-confidence prediction from the 12/22/23 episode of Hard Fork]

This market will resolve to yes if Google's Gemini Ultra or other state-of-the-art LLM is roughly equivalent to OpenAI's best publicly available LLM on December 31, 2024, and if Google's AI products have cut into ChatGPT's share of the consumer LLM chatbot market. Otherwise, it will resolve to no.