Will Google mostly catch up to OpenAI in LLM quality and neutralize ChatGPT's lead by the end of 2024?
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[This is Casey's medium-confidence prediction from the 12/22/23 episode of Hard Fork]

This market will resolve to yes if Google's Gemini Ultra or other state-of-the-art LLM is roughly equivalent to OpenAI's best publicly available LLM on December 31, 2024, and if Google's AI products have cut into ChatGPT's share of the consumer LLM chatbot market. Otherwise, it will resolve to no.

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There are so many concepts I want to bet on but the resolution criteria is so vague

These are some super vague terms

How will you measure the AI market share for each?

To get some more clarity of this, since it seems vague right now, if googles llms are similar in quality, and maybe are even better for some multimodal applications, but they cut into the chatgpt market share by only 15%, how would this resolve?

What if gemeni is allegedly better but those versions are not released broadly yet, while OpenAI's versions are?

bought Ṁ10 of NO

https://twitter.com/rowancheung/status/1738017154455175329?t=vA1nNK0rKtDvmNrHc-IohQ&s=19

what does this mean exactly? Does google need 20% of chatgpt's users? 80%? 100%?

bought Ṁ120 of YES

@jacksonpolack It seems a foregone conclusion that Bard "mostly" catches up in quality and "cuts into" GPT's market share given Google's wide reach.

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