Will a lawless LLM chatbot get 10 million daily active users by the end of 2024?
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resolved Jan 3
Resolved
NO

[This is Kevin's high-confidence prediction, made on the 12/22/23 episode of Hard Fork]

This question asks whether a lawless LLM chatbot will get to 10 million daily active users by the end of 2024. For the purposes of resolving this market, "lawless" should be construed to mean "significantly less restrained than comparable models from OpenAI, Google and Anthropic." It does not have to have literally zero rules to qualify as lawless, but a lawless chatbot should be able to respond to most queries and prompts (even explicit/violent/sexual ones) without refusals.

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