Will Elon Musk get his own Hunter Biden laptop scandal in 2024?
362
1.1k
3.3k
2025
19%
chance

[This is Kevin's low-confidence prediction from the 12/22/23 episode of Hard Fork]

This market will resolve to yes if, by 12/31/24, Elon Musk has downranked/throttled/censored a news outlet's coverage of the 2024 US presidential election on X, similar to the decision Twitter made to temporarily disallow links to the New York Post's Hunter Biden laptop story in 2020.

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bought Ṁ30 YES

I bought yes because Elon is in a unique position to actually self-justify doing this: he owns a media and a few other large companies that have a lot of surface for errors. As such the estimate feels cheap and a good deal.

With that said, the question is ambiguously worded. I thought this would be about some sort of sex scandal rather than a media censorship issue.

I would love to bet on this, but need more clarity. Users (including some that might call themselves news outlets) get downranked/throttled/censored all the time for various reasons, but this generally doesn’t constitute a “Hunter Biden laptop scandal.”

This is so vague bc there could be articles that are about the election that are throttled for entirely seperate reasons

bought Ṁ10 of YES

I wonder if KR considered Elon being the nexus of that scandal, not merely in regards to Twitter censorship, but that he himself will have a laptop or piece of information leaked that truly damages him and his reputation forever.

Scorched Earth strategies rarely produce long term growth or positive outcomes, see all empires. Something tells me Elon experiences his “O’Doyle family” (see Billy Madison) precipice in 2024.

Can you please provide more context? Without googling, I didn't know what Hard Fork is.

@JuJumper It’s a tech podcast. Check it out. It’s good.

bought Ṁ15 of NO

Nah I think Elon Musk only cares that much about articles about himself, not any of the presidential candidates

bought Ṁ25 of YES

Hasn't he already been caught doing this with NYT link? Does it have to be a specific news story?

@BenAdams Came here to say the same thing. I’m sure it’s already been reported that he does this regularly.

Found in almost zero seconds. This is over before 2024 even starts, right? https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/15/technology/x-delay-throttle.html