Will white-collar workers unionize to prevent job loss to AI/automation in 2024?
371
855
Ṁ31KṀ3.3K
2025
10%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Amount
Ṁ1
Ṁ10
Ṁ100
Payout if YES
Ṁ102 +925.1%
New probability
10%
[This is Kevin's medium-confidence prediction from the 12/22/23 episode of Hard Fork]
This market will resolve to yes if there is significant new union activity in at least 3 of these 5 fields by December 31, 2024: law, finance, medicine, media and tech. To count, unions don't need to be NLRB-certified by the end of 2024, but preventing AI and automation-related job loss should be among the organizers' top stated priorities.
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