Will white-collar workers unionize to prevent job loss to AI/automation in 2024?
Standard
411
Ṁ42kJan 1
12%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
[This is Kevin's medium-confidence prediction from the 12/22/23 episode of Hard Fork]
This market will resolve to yes if there is significant new union activity in at least 3 of these 5 fields by December 31, 2024: law, finance, medicine, media and tech. To count, unions don't need to be NLRB-certified by the end of 2024, but preventing AI and automation-related job loss should be among the organizers' top stated priorities.
Get
1,000
and1.00
Sort by:
Use of "AI" tech to copy artistic styles, voices, and appearances was an issue in the recent Hollywood strikes, but those are existing unions rather than new unionization.
Comment hidden
Comment hidden
Comment hidden
Related questions
Related questions
Will there be mass layoffs of knowledge workers as a direct result of AI by 2030?
68% chance
Major protest against automation/AI dev. by 2028?
71% chance
Will US-based white-collar workers across multiple sectors start unionizing by the end of 2024?
22% chance
Will increasing levels of AI/Automation cause a meaningful reduction in sweatshop labor by 2035?
50% chance
Will some U.S. software engineers be negatively affected financially due to AI by end of 2025?
71% chance
Will AI lead to a 3.5 day workweek by 2040?
30% chance
Will Automation by AI Cut Computer Programmer Jobs at least 25% by 2032?
38% chance
Will things basically be fine regarding job loss and unemployment due to AI in the next several years?
72% chance
Will AI cause the US Unemployment Rate to exceed 10% before 2030?
20% chance
Will 25% of US construction workers have their jobs negatively impacted by AI by 2030?
30% chance