[This is Kevin's medium-confidence prediction from the 12/22/23 episode of Hard Fork]
This market will resolve to yes if there is significant new union activity in at least 3 of these 5 fields by December 31, 2024: law, finance, medicine, media and tech. To count, unions don't need to be NLRB-certified by the end of 2024, but preventing AI and automation-related job loss should be among the organizers' top stated priorities.
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Use of "AI" tech to copy artistic styles, voices, and appearances was an issue in the recent Hollywood strikes, but those are existing unions rather than new unionization.