Will white-collar workers unionize to prevent job loss to AI/automation in 2024?
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2025
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[This is Kevin's medium-confidence prediction from the 12/22/23 episode of Hard Fork]

This market will resolve to yes if there is significant new union activity in at least 3 of these 5 fields by December 31, 2024: law, finance, medicine, media and tech. To count, unions don't need to be NLRB-certified by the end of 2024, but preventing AI and automation-related job loss should be among the organizers' top stated priorities.

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Use of "AI" tech to copy artistic styles, voices, and appearances was an issue in the recent Hollywood strikes, but those are existing unions rather than new unionization.

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Grammar 🚓. The missing Oxford comma “unionizes” media and tech into a single category leaving a total of four. Can we get either another category added or the text cleaned up? All in jest! Love the show, guys.

Imo the criteria is super strict here. I could see some union activity but 3/5 of those categories is a but much to take the yes side.

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