Everyday Astronaut 2025 Predictions
100%99.0%
5-8
0.5%
4 or less
0.2%
9-12
0.3%
13+
100%99.3%
Successful landing
0.1%
No successful launch
0.2%
Successful launch
0.4%
Reflight of a booster
100%99.0%
Unsuccessful attempt
0.8%
Yes
0.2%
No attempt
100%98.9%
301+
0.3%
261 or less
0.3%
262-280
0.5%
281-300
100%99.0%
Not in 2025
0.2%
Q2 2025
0.4%
Q3 2025
0.4%
Q4 2025
100%99.3%
151-170
0.2%
134 or less
0.2%
135-150
0.3%
171+
1k
100%99.0%
0 and the program survives
0.2%
1
0.2%
2+
0.5%
0 and the program is cancelled
100%98%
None of the above
0.8%
First Stage Static Fire
0.7%
Full Vehicle Stack
0.6%
Launch
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