(They launched 134 missions in 2024)
This market is based on a poll posted on X by Tim Dodd the Everyday Astronaut.
If the result is ambiguous, I may use Everyday Astronaut's followup video, if there is one, as a source for resolution.
See the full list of markets at https://manifold.markets/news/everyday-astronaut-2025-predictions
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165 launched https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Falcon_9_and_Falcon_Heavy_launches#2025
One more scheduled 1 Jan 01:59 UTC (is in 2025 ET) could be 166
With only 3 pads, none scheduled in next 2 days and pad turnaround of circa 2 days, it really cannot exceed 168.
So it may as well resolve as 151-170.
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2001542403292041377
"Great work by the SpaceX team!
Congrats to the entire @SpaceX team for achieving 165 launches
! While we originally set out for 170, we actually revised the manifest to 165 this summer based on business and manifest needs. We have two more Falcon launches to go in 2025 for extra credit for a total of 1-6-7"
So 165-167 seems the likely range
@ChristopherRandles note that this count does appear to be specifically Falcon launches, not counting Starship. Even so, not sure where the 171+ holders expect to pull six more launches out of in the next 13 days, when only two are scheduled...
@SeekingEternity Well they have done 13 in first 17 days of Dec, so at that rate they might be able to get one from each of 3 pads before and after Christmas even if flight restrictions likely mean they are not allowed to launch in something like ~24-27th period. Perhaps even 3 launches from VSFB on ~21st 28th and 31st. New starlink launches are added on fairly short notice, so it is only after that tweet that it begins to look highly unlikely. One of the 2 launches was scheduled for 20th until recently delayed to 28th.
I am keeping some of my 171+ as a hedge while expecting it is going to be 151-170.