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Will a new European launch provider reach orbit in 2025? (Everyday Astronaut 2025 Predictions)
12
แน€1kแน€11k
resolved Jan 1
100%99.0%
Unsuccessful attempt
0.8%
Yes
0.2%
No attempt

This market is based on a poll posted on X by Tim Dodd the Everyday Astronaut.

I'm assuming that by "No" he meant there would be no attempt at a launch and by "Not successfully" he meant there would be a launch that did not reach orbit but not a successful launch.

If the result is ambiguous, I may use Everyday Astronaut's followup video, if there is one, as a source for resolution.

See the full list of markets at https://manifold.markets/news/everyday-astronaut-2025-predictions

  • Update 2025-03-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Additional Clarification:

    • An unsuccessful attempt (e.g. Isar spectrum) eliminates the No attempt outcome.

    • The market will remain open if a later successful attempt occurs within the year.

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SpaceX
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Isar spectrum had an unsuccessful attempt. This rules out no attempt, but the market stays open since there might be a successful attempt later this year.

With Isar on the launch pad (attempted earlier this week but scrubbed), "No Attempt" probably should be lower.

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