Will a new European launch provider reach orbit in 2025? (Everyday Astronaut 2025 Predictions)
12
1kแน11kresolved Jan 1
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
100%99.0%
Unsuccessful attempt
0.8%
Yes
0.2%
No attempt
This market is based on a poll posted on X by Tim Dodd the Everyday Astronaut.
I'm assuming that by "No" he meant there would be no attempt at a launch and by "Not successfully" he meant there would be a launch that did not reach orbit but not a successful launch.
If the result is ambiguous, I may use Everyday Astronaut's followup video, if there is one, as a source for resolution.
See the full list of markets at https://manifold.markets/news/everyday-astronaut-2025-predictions
Update 2025-03-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Additional Clarification:
An unsuccessful attempt (e.g. Isar spectrum) eliminates the No attempt outcome.
The market will remain open if a later successful attempt occurs within the year.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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